Mariners must avoid letting J.P. Crawford's power lure them into a free agent trap

J.P. Crawford has already been a Mariner for quite some time. He was traded to Seattle heading into the 2019 season, when the team finished with just 68 wins and their most valuable player by rWAR was Marco Gonzales.

Seattle has come a long way since then, recently peaking with a trip to the ALCS where they lost in a heartbreaking Game 7, the furthest the club had ever been in the postseason. Through it all, Crawford has been the only constant and a remarkably consistent contributor to the Mariners' efforts.

Although he didn't start his career with the organization, he has made it abundantly clear that he'd like to stay for the remainder of his playing days. Now that he's in the final year of his contract, he's swinging for the fences to get a chance to come back.

J.P. Crawford is posting the best power numbers of his career as he heads into free agency

Like most shortstops, Crawford isn't someone that typically brings a lot of home run potential to the table. He has hit just 77 in more than 4,000 career plate appearances and he has never hit 20 in a single season. This year, he has already hit 10 and is slugging .409, the second-best single-season mark of his career.

At first glance, it may seem difficult to figure out where this added pop is coming from. His average exit velocity (87.8 mph) is still comfortably below league-average, as are his max exit velocity (107.8 mph) and bat speed (69.6 mph). Furthermore, he's pulling balls in the air just 13.3% of the time which is actually slightly below his career average. Fortunately, there are other ways to put balls in the stands other than simply hitting them harder.

The only notable jump in his Statcast numbers is his barrel rate. This year, it's 9.4% which is more than twice as high as his career average of 4.0%. Barrels have a somewhat murky definition but in essence, any batted ball that is hit hard and a good launch angle is considered a barrel. Thus, given that he's not hitting the ball much harder than usual, it can be ascertained that he's getting more optimal lift under the ball, allowing him to maximize distance.

The question is, will this added pop be enough for the Mariners to consider bringing him back for 2027 and beyond?

The reality is that the Mariners have already put their money where they believe their future is. Colt Emerson's eight-year, $95 million contract was inked before he even made his debut and given how things have gone for him so far in the majors, it may end up being one of the best long-term investments in franchise history. As compelling as Crawford's recent offensive surge has been, it still pales in comparison to the cumulative upside that Emerson brings to the table and it seems like Seattle's mind on the matter has been made up.

Nonetheless, Crawford is incentivized to maximize his player stock as he heads into free agency as it will allow him to sign as lucrative of a contract as possible. It'll be a shock to see him don a different uniform than the one he has been proudly wearing for the past seven years but as they say, nothing last forever.

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