Mariners may be doomed for disappointment with No. 3 pick in MLB Draft

You can make a case that the Seattle Mariners — the only Major League team to never make it to the World Series — never seem able to catch a break, with things going wrong even when they go right. The prime example is the 2001 team which tied the modern record of 116 regular season wins, but still lost in five games to the New York Yankees in the ALCS.

More recently, you have last year's Mariners team, which definitely statistically and arguably just overall had the top rotation in all of baseball but still fell one game back of a playoff spot in the AL. The reason for bringing these two examples up is not to depress fans in Seattle, but rather because they came to mind when considering the M's position ahead of next month's draft in Atlanta, Georgia.

On a surface level, the Mariners are in an enviable situation after miraculously jumping from 15th to third place in the draft lottery, thus giving Jerry Dipoto the highest pick of his time in Seattle. In theory, this gives rival teams yet another reason to fear the M's, given Dipoto and company's consistent ability to discover and develop quality young talent.

Mariners might not be quite as well-placed as originally believed

However, dig a little deeper and it would seem the Mariners are not in quite as favorable a position as initially believed, at least according to some of the main sports media outlets. This is because while the overall depth of this year's draft class is strong, this does not appear to extend to the quality at the top end.

For example, consider these damning comments from The Athletic's Keith Law (subscription required) in his recent 2025 MLB Draft top 100 prospects article: "It’s a weak class at the very top; I don’t think anyone on this list would have cracked the top five in 2023, or have been in consideration at 1-1 last year, for example."

This sentiment extends to MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo in an article he put together at the end of April, which included an updated and expanded draft top 150. Mayo shared comments from a NL crosschecker, who said: "It's just been a crazy year. I think there's a lot of depth but there's not as much star power as normal. There's not as much separation and it's not as clearly defined in the top 10."

ESPN also has a similar outlook, with Kiley McDaniel recently declaring that the top of this draft is seen as weaker (although again, the overall depth is perceived as strong). McDaniel wrote that "this is viewed as a weaker draft than the 2024 class and that's still the case. Last year's final draft rankings had five players better than a 50 FV and 10 total players at a 50 FV or above. This year, as you can see below, has eight players as a 50 FV or better and no one above that tier."

Ae the Mariners really doomed for disappointment in this year's draft?

Assuming this all turns out to be true, we go back to our original point about it being tough luck for the Mariners, especially after beating the odds to get the No. 3 pick in the first place. Yes, the farm system is still loaded for the M's, but will this franchise ever catch a break when seemingly being in a strong position?!

Pending the accuracy of the analysis regarding the top end of this year's draft, it will be interesting to discover what Dipoto and company decide to do in Seattle. They will pretty much be able to get whoever they want at No. 3, with a recent mock draft by Baseball America indicating the Mariners could go against their usual draft philosophy and potentially select high school pitcher Seth Hernandez.

However, it's also entirely feasible that Dipoto, renowned for being a bit of a wheeler and dealer, could consider not going all-in on his choice with the third pick. As Law wrote: "There is quite a bit of depth further down the list, however, especially in high school shortstops, college outfielders, and left-handed pitching at both levels. It’s a good year to go under slot with your first pick and spread some money around, and a good year to have an extra pick or two."

This brings us to one final point to remind people that the Mariners' 11 picks in the top 10 rounds add up to $17,074,400 of overall slot value. This is the fourth-highest allotment since the pool bonus-pool era began in 2012, and something to take into account when contemplating what the Dipoto and company will ultimately do.

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