Mariners have the Blue Jays right where they want them as ALCS shifts to Seattle

They say seeing is believing, but you can forgive Seattle Mariners fans for wondering if someone is about to wake them up and tell them this is all a dream. A franchise which has continually been used to disappointment and heartbreak over the past five decades, now stands just two wins away from their first ever World Series.

To get to this point, the Mariners went into Toronto and took Games 1 and 2 versus a Blue Jays team with the best home record in the AL this season — a Blue Jays team coming off defeating the New York Yankees in the AL Division Series, which including dominating their divisional rivals by a combined 23-8 in two games at Rogers Centre.

After beating the Blue Jays 10-3 in Game Two on Monday, this AL Championship Series now shifts to Seattle for three games beginning on Wednesday. And history is very much on the side of the Mariners to advance to somewhere they've never been before.

Mariners fans have to like the odds

As per Bryan Hoch of MLB.com, there have been 93 times in postseason history that a team has taken a 2-0 lead in any best-of-seven series, with 78 going on to take the series for a success rate of 83.9 percent. And it's even better when looking at the current 2-3-2 format, with teams taking both Games 1 and 2 on the road subsequently winning the series 24 of 27 times for a 88.9 percent success rate.

Even the Mariners' 116-win team from 2001 was never able to get into such a position, and this speaks volumes about just what the 2025 version is doing. It's truly wondrous stuff for the fanbase, which must be even more encouraged when considering who the M's will have pitching for them back at T-Mobile Park.

As per Tim Booth of The Seattle Times, Dan Wilson has confirmed George Kirby and Luis Castillo will start Game 3 and 4 respectively, with both enjoying excellent success at home this season. This becomes even more prominent when compared to how they pitched on the road, which also played a part in how the Mariners decided to deploy their rotation in the playoffs.

Kirby produced a 3.38 ERA and 1.110 WHIP in 12 regular season home games in 2025, compared to a 5.16 ERA and 1.281 WHIP on the road in 11 starts. The respective results stand out even more for Castillo, with a 2.60 ERA and 0.967 WHIP in 17 home outings compared to a 4.71 ERA and 1.456 WHIP in 15 road starts.

Home cooking is best for George Kirby and Luis Castillo

Wilson's decision to have the duo enjoy some home cooking has extended into the playoffs, with both pitchers performing well in two appearances versus the Detroit Tigers at T-Mobile Park. Kirby has given up just three combined runs in two starts of 5.0 innings each, while Castillo has allowed no runs in 6.0 combined innings including a relief appearance in the 15-inning ALDS Game Five slog.

The biggest question mark — and by extension anticipation — comes in awaiting news on Bryan Woo, who was included on the ALCS roster after missing out on the previous round due to still recovering from pectoral tightness. To have Woo back to start Game 5 would be a tremendous boost, especially as the one M's starter who has pitched well this season both at home and on the road.

Woo did throw live batting practice in Toronto on Monday, but if he still isn't ready to go in Game 5, at least the Mariners can have more confidence in turning to Bryce Miller after the start of his career in Game 1 of this ALCS. And whisper it quietly, but the M's might not have to even concern themselves with the situation if they manage to sweep the Blue Jays.

That last sentence shouldn't be perceived as a subtle shot at the Blue Jays, who are still a potent and dangerous team more than capable of turning this series around. Although one look at their potential starters in Seattle will only offer further encouragement to a Mariners fanbase traditionally programmed to expect the worst outcome from their team.

Pitching matchups favor the Mariners

So far the Blue Jays have only confirmed Shane Bieber, who won the AL Cy Young Award in the shortened 2020 season, as a starter for Game 3. He arrived in Toronto via a trade deadline deal with the Cleveland Guardians and was limited to seven starts after rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.

Bieber's returns have been so-so, with a 3.57 ERA, 4.47 FIP and 1.017 WHIP in his aforementioned seven starts. Of more significance, he was awful in his one postseason start to date, getting the hook after just 2.2 innings in the Blue Jays' only loss versus the Yankees after allowing five hits, a walk and three runs.

The question will then be who the Blue Jays opt for in Game 4 and a potential Game 5, with Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt respectively being in the running. They've had injury issues themselves this season but neither inspires that much confidence regardless, as per a 5.19 ERA, 4.99 FIP and 1.294 WHIP by Scherzer and a 3.96 ERA along with a 4.01 FIP and 1.327 WHIP by Bassitt.

It's possible the Blue Jays could use Kevin Gausman on short rest for a Game 5, but even this alludes to the Mariners being very much in the driver's seat. Maybe this really is all just a dream for Mariners fans, but if it is, don't dare wake them up.