Mariners have backed themselves into worst possible matchup for ALDS Game 5

It was all looking so good for the Seattle Mariners midway through the fifth inning in Game 4. Bryce Miller was pitching as well as he had all season, Casey Mize had been chased from the game early and Josh Naylor was playing with dad strength.

Most importantly, the Mariners were leading the Detroit Tigers 3-0 and seemingly had one foot in the AL Championship Series. However, then it all went disastrously wrong as the M's spectacularly fell apart, resulting in a deflating 9-3 loss. This AL Division Series will now shift back to Seattle for a winner-takes-all Game 5 on Friday.

In theory, playing at T-Mobile Park should at least give the Mariners an advantage, with their 51-30 home record in the regular season representing the second-best in the AL. Unfortunately, they face the prospect of having to go up against Tarik Skubal, who was actually (but unsurprisingly) confirmed as the Tigers' starter for the potential decider ahead of Game 4.

Now yes, we appreciate that the Mariners are 3-0 this season in the three games they've faced Skubal, including a 3-2 win in Game 2 of this ALDS. Further, the M's have had success versus the southpaw specifically in the three games, with him allowing 15 hits, six walks and nine earned runs in 17.2 combined innings.

Mariners can't expect continued success versus Tarik Skubal

However, to expect the Mariners to again have similar success versus Skubal a fourth time in one season is not exactly the most reassuring of hills to die on. While pushing their luck might not be the most appropriate of terms to use in this situation, the M's are (over)due to have worse luck against arguably the best pitcher in the game today.

There will be those who understandably believe the title of best pitcher should go to Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes, but at the very least you make the case that Skubal is the top arm in the AL. He won his first Cy Young last season and quite rightly is the favorite to win the award for a second consecutive time in 2025.

Skubal truly has been sensational this season, with him finishing the regular season leading the AL with a 6.6 WAR, 2.21 ERA, 1.87 ERA+ and 2.45 FIP. He also led the majors as a whole with a 0.891 WHIP, 1.5 walks per nine and a 7.30 K/BB ratio.

Tarik Skubal should be feaful of facing Tarik Skubal again

Sometimes a team can just have a player's number, but again, do you really want to die on this hill despite the Mariners' success versus him this year? Good grief, you only need to take a look at his Baseball Savant page to really put the fear of God into Mariners fans, with him ranking in the 90s for a whole host of pitching categories and the 100th percentile for both Pitching Run Value and Offspeed Run Value.

To be clear, we're not trying to paint a picture of doom and gloom, just highlighting how difficult a task awaits the Mariners on Friday. In addition, despite their tremendous home record in 2025, you also still have to factor in that they are not as productively offensively compared to in general during the regular season.

Overall the Mariners ranked 10th in team OPS and tied-ninth in runs scored, whereas at T-Mobile Park specifically they ranked 22nd in OPS and 18th in runs scored. Now add in facing Skubal combined with scoring just five combined runs in Games 1 and 2 in Seattle, and the M's really have backed themselves into the worst possible matchup for Friday's winner-takes-all clash.