Mariners have an underrated reason to eye a future trade of George Kirby

You got the sense there was always a reluctance to actually trade George Kirby ahead of this year's deadline, yet the Mariners at least performed their due diligence by listening to offers. In the end it came to nothing and we imagine plenty within the organization breathed a huge sigh of relief. However, the M's would be wise to revisit potential trade scenarios involving the righty after the season, because there's a very real chance his peak has already passed.

There has been lots coming out recently about the Mariners' efforts to move Kirby, or lack thereof. The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal reported that discussions involving the 28-year-old never advanced past the 50-yard line. In fairness, Jerry Dipoto effectively confirmed this himself by saying he didn't engage much beyond "Hello."

This raises the question of why the discussions with other teams didn't go far. How much of it was connected to the Mariners' ideally not wanting to trade Kirby, versus just not receiving any offers which they considered worthy of further conversation? What makes the latter scenario more intriguing, is that ESPN's Jeff Passan suggested the 2023 All-Star's availability may have in turn crashed the market for Tarik Skubal.

From bonafide staff ace to a still talented but inconsistent pitcher

In any event, we reiterate it might be in the best interest of the Mariners to try and trade Kirby once the 2026 season is over. It's entirely possible we've already seen the best of him in 2023 and 2024, when he looked like a bonafide long-term staff ace. In each of those two seasons he highlighted his tremendous command with an insane K/BB ratio (the best in the majors), while also proving to be durable by challenging the 200-inning threshold.

Since then however, Kirby has regressed. It doesn't help that he suffered a right shoulder injury which caused him to miss nearly two months to open last season, and he just hasn't been the same ever since. He's now more prone to walks, producing fewer strikeouts and allowing more home runs.

It's not that Kirby doesn't still have the dog in him or has suddenly lost all his talent, but the consistency just isn't there anymore. This was perhaps best highlighted recently, when he followed up 6.0 innings of three-hit, scoreless ball versus the Reds with a nightmare against the Rangers. He allowed seven hits and seven earned runs over 4.0 innings in Texas, as he matched a career-high by being taken yard four times.

Mariners must overcome any reluctance to trade George Kirby and do what's best for the organization

It's possible that some people don't appreciate just how good Kirby was back in 2023, just because it was almost expected and taken for granted. During that season he was ridiculously effective, ranking in the 98th percentile for Pitching Run Value, 97th percentile for Fastball Run Value and 91st percentile for Breaking Run Value. Now fast forward to 2026, and he ranks in the 38th, 59th and 21st percentile respectively.

In the past, the "probably can't extend Kirby" line of reasoning has weighed heavily in our analysis. Adam Jude of The Seattle Times has also said there's a general sense in the industry that the 2019 20th overall draft pick will test free agency when he becomes eligible in 2029. Heck, let's also throw in the assumption he would prefer to move back to the East Coast, where he's originally from.

Overall, it all points back to why the Mariners need to overcome any reluctance -- perceived or real -- and seriously consider moving Kirby in the offseason. While we'd be more than happy for him to rediscover his 2023/24 form over these final two months of the 2026 campaign, it just doesn't seem likely. (Please prove us wrong.) So if any teams out there really want him, the M's might as well let them have him if the price is right.

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