Mariners have 3 reasons to risk moving J.P. Crawford off shortstop for Colt Emerson

J.P. Crawford's offer to move to third base has been on the table for a while, and it seems like the Seattle Mariners are ready to take him up on it.

With Crawford set to be activated off the IL on Tuesday, the buzz at Nationals Park on Sunday was that his return won't necessarily be at shortstop. As per Adam Jude of The Seattle Times, Crawford took ground balls exclusively at third base over the weekend, and he says he feels "great over there."

OK, then. Problem solved. It'll be Crawford at third and Colt Emerson at shortstop going forward. What could possibly go wrong?

Here's why J.P. Crawford belongs at third base for the Mariners

That's normally a facetious question, but not this time. Though shifting Crawford to third so Emerson can play short would be an experiment for the Mariners, it's not as high-risk as it seems — yes, even if Crawford has 915 more career starts at shortstop than he does at third base.

Let's get into three reasons why.

Crawford Is Probably Better Suited for Third Base

Just in the abstract, getting Crawford off shortstop is addition by subtraction. He was a Gold Glover there once upon a time, but his last two seasons have yielded -9 Defensive Runs Saved and -20 Outs Above Average at shortstop.

His arm strength has been a big part of the problem in 2026, as he's gone from a peak average of 83.7 mph to just 79.0 mph on his throws. Even his max speed of 81.9 mph is lower than what 34 qualified shortstops are averaging on their throws.

By third base standards, though, Crawford's arm strength is less below-average. The average third baseman's throw is about 1 mph slower than the average shortstop's, which somewhat dispels the notion that you need to throw like Matt Chapman to play the hot corner.

But that's not actually surprising. Because the ball gets on you faster at third base than it does at shortstop, a slower throw isn't necessarily the difference between a safe or out call at first base,

Crawford Probably Won't Be As Exposed at Third Base

Mariners fans have gotten used to holding their breath every time the ball is hit to Crawford at shortstop. It's an uncomfortable experience, and that much more so because it happens a lot.

With help from Baseball Savant, we know that 75.1 percent of all ground balls are going to one of the four infield positions in 2026. And here's how each position's share breaks down:

• First Base: 13.4%
• Second Base: 22.0%
• Shortstop: 21.3%
• Third Base: 18.4%

So, second base sees the most action, followed by shortstop and third base, with first base as a distant fourth. Not exactly surprising, given that only middle infielders must be on their toes whether a righty or a lefty is at the plate.

Simply on these grounds, a team wants to have a good defender at short and a less-good defender at third if that's the choice at hand. And since we already know Crawford is the less-good defender in this equation for the Mariners, that just leaves the question of how good Emerson is.

Emerson Already Looks Like a Very Good Shortstop

And here's the answer: Even with just 74.2 innings at the position, Emerson is already tied for seventh among shortstops with +3 Defensive Runs Saved.

It's a small sample size, yet it is reflective of the 20-year-old's reputation as a defender. Especially in the last two seasons, those who followed Emerson's minor league career got used to seeing web gem after web gem before he finally got the call to Seattle on May 17.

As Crawford himself said it, "The kid’s been great over there [at short]." That might have come off as him selflessly giving said kid a confidence boost under other circumstances, but not these. Emerson clearly belongs there.

Naturally, the thing to be grateful for is that Crawford isn't going all Rafael Devers on the Mariners and refusing to change positions. He clearly knows what's best for the team, and literally nothing about the situation says he's wrong.

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