Don't look now, but the Mariners are in uncharted territory — at least for the first time in more than two decades. Thanks to the combination of a second consecutive walk-off win and the Astros losing on Thursday night, this is the latest point of the season the M's have had a share of first place in the AL West since 2001.
Just to read that previous sentence must be surreal for a lot of Mariners fans. Aside from the fact the M's haven't won a division title for 23 seasons, they only have three in a franchise history which spans just a shade under five decades.
However, it's all about the here and now, with the vibes feeling great in Seattle and with good reason. And as if that isn't enough, it would appear these vibes extend to the media, with several major baseball media outlets now tabbing the Mariners as favorites to win the AL West.
FanGraphs, Baseball Reference and Baseball Prospectus all looking favorably on the Mariners
First up is FanGraphs, who give the Mariners odds of 57.1 percent to win their division, as well as odds of 92.0 percent just to make the playoffs. FanGraphs is always good in general to chart a team's odds over the course of a season, with it worth noting they had the M's at their lowest point on July 6 with just a 12.7 percent chance to win the AL West.
Next we have Baseball Reference, although while they also have the Mariners as favorites to win the AL West it's effectively a 50-50 proposition at 51.9. percent. They are also not quite as confident as FanGraphs when it comes to the M's just making the postseason, although fans should still be extremely heartened by odds of 84.8 percent.
The other baseball media outlet is Baseball Prospectus, who actually give the Mariners the best odds of the three of winning the AL West, at 74.8 percent. Similarly they also give the M's the best overall odds of making the postseason at 95.2 percent, but the overall point is that Seattle's team is held in high regard in general.
Mariners need to look out for one team in their division but it's not the Astros
To a certain point, we're not surprised by this turn of events, when considering how much the Astros have struggled in going 23-28 since the All-Star break. They're just so banged up at the moment (especially on the pitching side), not that you can expect much sympathy for a team which has been to four World Series in the past eight years and was previously involved in a sign-stealing scandal.
On the subject of being banged up, this also applies to the Rangers, who are without the likes of Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Tyler Mahle, Nathan Eovaldi and Jon Gray. Bizarrely, they seem to be going in the opposite direction of the Astros, with a 29-21 record since the All-Star break.
In fact we believe the Rangers are actually being underestimated, with a record of 15-5 in their past 20 contests after a three-game sweep of a Milwaukee Brewers team with the best record in the majors. And yet they've only being given odds to win the AL West by FanGraphs, Baseball Reference and Baseball Prospectus at 4.5, 17.2 and 3.8 percent, respectively.
Overall, though, Mariners fans should love how they're being perceived at the moment, which makes sense when they have the strongest (and healthiest) roster in the AL West. Now it's just a case of not finding a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, because this is a teams capable of doing so much more this year than just making the playoffs.
