Mariners fans on edge about disastrous potential of Robbie Ray trade

The $115 million free-agent deal that the Seattle Mariners struck with Robbie Ray in November of 2021 is already one of the more notable missteps in the franchise's history. Yet even though his time in Seattle is over, the book on his Mariners legacy is not yet complete.

Warnings for potential spoilers: It may not have a happy ending for Seattle fans.

What's for sure in the meantime is that Ray is now with the San Francisco Giants. And on Saturday, he'll go face-to-face with the Mariners for the second time since they traded him last January in a move that was a salary dump for both sides.

It's doubtful that many in Seattle were sad to see Ray go. After winning the AL Cy Young Award as a member of the Toronto Blue Jays in 2021, he signed with the Mariners on a five-year, $115 million contract and promptly saw his ERA rise by nearly a full run in 2022. And after lasting 3.1 innings in his first start of 2023, he promptly underwent Tommy John surgery.

Besides, the trade that sent Ray to the Bay Area brought back Mitch Haniger, a one-time All-Star and a fan favorite in Seattle. What could possibly go wrong?

Only everything, if worse comes to worst.

Robbie Ray's Comeback Mission Is off to a Good Start

The 33-year-old Ray had his Tommy John operation in early May of 2023, so he's nearly two full years removed from going under the knife. He should be back to 100-percent, and it sure looks like he is.

As we covered in early March, Ray looked reborn right out of the gate for the Giants during spring training. That never stopped being the case, as he ultimately ended the team's Cactus League slate with 19.1 innings and a 1.86 ERA to show for five starts.

Ray only got his fastball as high as 94.5 mph during the spring — i.e., about where he sat in his brilliant 2021 season — yet he fanned 23 batters against only one walk anyway. His trusty slider had a 45.5 whiff percentage and his new changeup had the Giants buzzing.

"We've seen him this spring look like Robbie Ray again," Giants manager Bob Melvin said, via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. "Right now, his stuff looks like it did before."

Ray kept right on rolling once he made his regular season debut on March 30. He took a perfect game against the Cincinnati Reds into the sixth inning before running out of gas, allowing three hits, a walk and three runs before departing.

Though Ray still isn't throwing as hard as he did in 2021, his 93.6 mph average fastball from his opener is better than the 93.4 mph he averaged as a Mariner in 2022. He's also proved that his changeup wasn't merely a spring training experiment. He threw it 10 times in his 2025 debut, and all against right-handed batters.

The Mariners Stand to Get Nothing from the Ray Trade

Meanwhile in Seattle, the Ray trade hasn't done the Mariners much good.

Haniger flopped with -0.2 rWAR in his return to Seattle in 2024, and is only a few weeks removed from getting released. He came to Seattle with Anthony DeSclafani, who was promptly flipped to the Minnesota Twins as part of the Jorge Polanco trade. DeSclafani hasn't pitched since 2023, while Polanco put up just 1.3 rWAR in a frustrating '24 season. The Mariners declined a $12 million club option on him for 2025, later re-signing him at a discounted rate of $7.75 million.

True, the Mariners did get out of the $73 million they owed Ray through 2026, but those savings haven't been reinvested into improvements. The team's payroll has more or less stagnated over the last three years, and even Cal Raleigh's six-year, $105 million contract extension only does so much to redeem a lifeless 2024-25 offseason that drew condemnation from all corners.

A few weeks ago, the silver lining was that the Mariners didn't need Ray in their star-studded starting rotation anyway. Cut to now, though, and George Kirby is out with shoulder inflammation and the first man up to replace him bombed hard enough to immediately get sent to Triple-A Tacoma. It all gives credence to the notion that you can never have enough pitching.

In other words, how long before the Ray trade looks like a repeat of the Eugenio Suárez trade from the perspective of Mariners fans?

The hope is obviously that the answer proves to be "never." But if the Ray trade does take that kind of turn, Mariners fans will be left to wonder yet again if the team was simply too quick to move on from a star player.