Mariners fans must be careful with fallen Cubs prospect's scorching spring

There's often warnings about how fans shouldn't get too up or down on what happens during spring training — not that there can't be exceptions, but usually it's best to keep yourself on an even keel. However, among all the headlines to come out of Peoria in the early going for the Seattle Mariners, one of the main ones has to involve Brennen Davis.

Signed during the offseason to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training, Davis has been on fire so far in Cactus League action, going 5-for-8 along with two walks in four games. And he's shown plenty of power in the process, with all five hits resulting in extra bases courtesy of two runs and three doubles.

Now add in the fact that Davis is originally a second-round pick in the 2018 draft and as recently as 2022 was the Chicago Cubs' No. 1 prospect according to MLB Pipeline, and you might start to think the Mariners played a blinder by signing him.

However, as is often the case when things seem almost too good to be true, it's because they usually aren't.

Brennen Davis has been here before

The reality is that Davis has repeatedly flattered to deceive over the years and for all his promise, the cold harsh truth is that he's now 26 years old and has yet to even make one appearance in the majors. Plenty of talented prospects with untapped potential have seen it shatter into a million pieces of unfulfilled talent, with the outfielder one of those currently teetering on the edge.

Heck, it's not even as if Davis hasn't had strong spring training camps before, with him producing a 1.455 OPS in 2022 and then 1.583 in 2024, both while with the Cubs. (Albeit in just eight and nine at-bats respectively.) So as eye-popping as his 2.450 OPS is with the Mariners, how much does it really matter when measured against his previous showings?

As he's been showing in Peoria, the power has always been a big selling point when it comes to Davis. Back in 2022, Baseball America's scouting report on him said: "His long arms create excellent leverage in his swing and help him generate plus power to his pull side. He has progressively filled out as he’s matured and still has room to get stronger and add more power."

When you consider the Chandler, Arizona native's overall minor league stats, they look encouraging enough, with a career .242 batting average and .792 OPS in seven seasons — so again, what gives? Well, his career .211 batting average and .731 OPS in five seasons at the Triple-A level is enough to immediately put the brakes on things, at least to an extent.

Mariners have as much reason to be weary as encouraged

In fairness to Davis, he did produce extremely well last year during his one season with the New York Yankees organization, batting .271 with a .975 OPS in the minors, including .248 and .900 in Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre specifically. However, even this alludes to another aspect going against and holding him back — his durability, or lack thereof.

Last year Davis only actually played a combined 50 games for the Yankees and since 2022 has not appeared in more than 71 games during a MiLB season. Along the way he's dealt with issues such as a fractured left ankle and a couple of back injuries, one of which required surgery. (Heck, he even missed part of the 2021 season after being hit in the face by a pitch.)

So yes, Davis is still that same talented player who was good enough to be named MVP in the 2021 All-Star Futures Game, but he's also very prone to injury and as white hot as he can get, he's just as likely to quickly turn ice cold. As such, as great as it is how well he's hitting so far with the Mariners, you'll have to forgive us if we decide not to hop on his bandwagon just yet.