Mariners fans left antsy by bargain extension projection for ace Logan Gilbert

The Seattle Mariners' wealth of starting pitching has become their saving grace. Despite a lackluster offense, the Mariners rotation combined for a 3.38 ERA last season, leading all of MLB and serving as a major contributor to every single one of the team's 85 wins.

At the head of the ship was Logan Gilbert, who pitched to a 3.23 ERA while leading all of MLB in innings (208.2) and WHIP (0.887) on his way to placing sixth in AL Cy Young voting. A homegrown talent, it won't be long before he hits free agency and is able to test the market for a new deal. That is, unless the Mariners can extend him.

Talks of a new contract have been circling since last October. Yet after signing a new deal in arbitration, it seems like Seattle is kicking the can down the road with Gilbert. He loves Seattle and is open to remaining a Mariner, but a long-term deal has yet to materialize.

In a recent article for The Athletic, Tim Britton took a stab at projecting how much it would take to lock up Gilbert. His final estimate was a six-year, $126 million contract.

How feasible is a six-figure deal for Gilbert?

For a frugal team like the Mariners, a long-term, nine-figure deal isn't a common occurrence.

Last time they inked a similar contract for a pitcher, it was to sign Robbie Ray after he had put up dominant numbers in a Cy Young Award-winning season in 2021. After just over a season's worth of work, Seattle was already looking to offload his salary and ended up trading him to the San Francisco Giants.

However, extensions are different. Unlike free agent deals, the goal of an extension is to get in while a player's stock is still relatively low and before they have negotiating leverage by courting other teams. Traditionally frugal organizations like the Cleveland Guardians and Milwaukee Brewers have used this strategy to lock down exceptional talent like José Ramírez and Jackson Chourio at what will end up being bargain bin prices.

The Mariners themselves did something similar with Julio Rodríguez halfway through his rookie year in 2022, signing a deal worth $210 million guaranteed and up to $470 million based on options and incentives.

Gilbert isn't quite the same caliber of player as J-Rod, who is also much younger at 24. Gilbert will be right around 28 by the time Opening Day rolls around, and will be off his age-30 season if he hits free agency after 2027. However, $126 million over six years is a fair price to pay for a starting pitcher these days, especially one of Gilbert's caliber. The team offered Luis Castillo five-year, $108 million contract to be the ace of the team and so far, his numbers have slightly lagged behind Gilbert's.

Assuming they don't want to shell out the extra cash right now, the front office could wait until the salaries of Mitch Garver and Mitch Haniger are off the books after 2025, freeing up $27 million. The longer the organization waits to make an extension, the more Gilbert's price will go up. His reputation around the league has increased with each subsequent year and it doesn't seem to be slowing down.

This could be a rare and fleeting opportunity for the Mariners to put their money in the right place and lean into their biggest strength. Alternatively, they could continue to maintain their annual tradition of just barely missing the playoffs if that's a more appealing option than finally taking proactive measures to build a successful roster.