Mariners fans shouldn't worry about Logan Gilbert contract extension rumors

With the playoffs in full swing, the Mariners are comfortably at home planning for next season. With free agent signings and trade talks likely waiting for the World Series winner to be crowned before progressing, the main concerns for teams at home are arbitration and extension talks.

The most notable Mariners candidate for a contract extension is Logan Gilbert, one of the team's best pitchers. He logged a 3.23 ERA and led all of MLB in games started (33), innings pitched (208.2), and WHIP (0.89) on his way to his first career All-Star selection. His whiff rate of 31.7% and strikeout rate of 27.4% were both in the top quartile of qualified pitchers, while his walk rate of just 4.6% was in the 95th percentile.

Overall, it was a great year for Gilbert, but a contract extension is reportedly not in the works despite his success.

He'll be a free agent in 2028 and is estimated to earn more than $8 million in arbitration this year. Though he has a few more years of team control, inking an extension now could net the organization continued great performances at a discounted rate. Going year-to-year in the arbitration process could see his AAV balloon to the level of other arbitration pitchers like Corbin Burnes ($15.64 million) and Max Fried ($15 million). Some believe that extension discussions haven't been started because he's being touted as a valuable trade chip for teams on the cusp of playoff contention. However, others believe there's simply no rush.

Much of Gilbert's success stems from his velocity and pitch mix. His four-seam fastball sits in the high-90s and touched 100 mph this year. As impressive as that is, his slider was arguably his best pitch, having a whiff rate of 36.8% and a .210 opposing batting average. With great velocity and 35 inches of vertical drop, it's one of the best offerings in the league.

The downside of this pitching style is that it's volatile. When velocity and spin rates go down, the numbers regress quickly. Noah Syndergaard is a good example of a player whose performance quickly faded after losing velocity following Tommy John surgery. With his reputation as a workhorse, Gilbert's workload and/or age could see him peak early and have just a few years left by the time he becomes a free agent. Furthermore, he'll be 31 years old by the time he hits the market.

The Mariners have three more years of team control, it makes sense for them to ride the wave for as long as they can while allocating some payroll to bolstering their comparatively anemic lineup. Is it possible to retain Gilbert and acquire impact bats to push them into October next year? It should be.

But as for an extension, it's not like that will make or break the offseason for the M's. Gilbert is in Seattle for three more years, and unless Seattle feels strongly about keeping him beyond his age-30 season, there's just no reason to put more money on the books at this point when ownership is already shying away from spending.

Gilbert will earn his money via arbitration and the Mariners won't have to worry about contract headaches or risky investments. Everybody wins here.