Mariners fans are setting themselves up for a Josh Naylor free agency letdown

While Josh Naylor inches closer to becoming a free agent at the end of 2025, Seattle Mariners fans are already at a point where they won't take no for an answer as to whether he should be re-signed. It's a situation that doesn't seem likely to end well.

Naylor has become a huge fan favorite since arriving in the Pacific Northwest, and why not? The veteran first baseman has been terrific since his Mariners debut on July 25, and he's further ingratiated himself with the base by crushing the ball at T-Mobile Park (1.162 OPS) and by being the most intense dude on the planet.

It was probably inevitable that a display demanding the Mariners "Sign Naylor Now!" would appear at T-Mobile Park. And on Tuesday, it happened during the M's 5-3 win over the St. Louis Cardinals:

“I don’t really look around the crowd like that during the game, I’m kind of focused in the moment," Naylor said after the game, as relayed by Lookout Landing on X, "but that’s super cool…I’m very grateful, very thankful for this fan base. They’re super awesome.”

Mariners fans' obsession with Josh Naylor can only end badly

You have to give the fans who made that sign this much: They had terrific timing.

The 28-year-old Naylor had been slumping for a minute, but he went into Tuesday's contest with four hits and two home runs in his last three games. He added three more hits last night, including a tank of a homer in the fourth inning that turned a 3-3 tie into a 4-3 lead.

And the bat chuck? It was legendary.

“Big-time games right now,” said Naylor, per Adam Jude of the Seattle Times. “We’re in a really awesome push for the playoffs, an awesome push for the division. And it’s just — it’s time to go.”

All of the above encapsulates why Mariners fans have fallen head over heels for Naylor since he's been around. And with no plan at first base beyond 2025 — Tyler Locklear is gone, after all — that the Mariners should prioritize re-signing Naylor this winter seems as simple as putting one and one together to make two.

Yet it's not that simple, if for no other reason than Naylor's financial outlook doesn't favor the Mariners.

He's been teased for a nine-figure price tag, which seems feasible given his All-Star-caliber production (he's averaged a 123 OPS+, 22 home runs and 12 stolen bases since 2022) and his ineligibility for the qualifying offer. The Mariners typically give such contracts a wide berth, as they have only ever signed Robinson Canó and Robbie Ray to nine-figure deals in free agency.

What the Mariners could do is free up some money to make signing Naylor more practical. The Luis Castillo contract is one they wanted to cut last winter, and further decline on his part in 2025 may make them more determined to do so. Conceivably, they could also look to shop players who are due for raises in arbitration, such as Randy Arozarena and Logan Gilbert.

Granted, it's not a given that there will be a nine-figure deal for Naylor out there this winter. Yet he should at least be in for $20-plus million per year, a la Christian Walker and Pete Alonso. Presently, Seattle's highest paid player is Castillo at $21.6 million per year.

This brings us around to the other key question of how "worth it" Naylor will be as a marquee free agent. Despite his solid offensive numbers, he's only averaged 1.9 rWAR over the last four seasons. That's a supporting character, not a star that you turn into a center of gravity in your payroll.

Of course, Mariners fans seem to have decided he's precisely that kind of guy. But unless they're able to wrest control of the front office from Jerry Dipoto, they'd do well to not get their hopes of Naylor being a forever Mariner higher than they already are.