Mariners' draft lottery odds offer a genuine silver lining for lost 2026 season

Following what was arguably (but really) the most disappointing season in franchise history, it's tough to find positives for the Mariners. There were some though, including the progress of the likes of Dominic Canzone, Cole Young and Emerson Hancock. However, perhaps the ultimate silver lining comes as a result of what was a disastrous 2026 campaign in Seattle.

Obviously, pretty much anyone connected with the Mariners would have preferred they were in the playoffs and taking aim at that elusive World Series berth. However, if you're not one of the 12 teams to advance, it's conceivably better to as finish as far down the standings as possible. And with a 76-86 record, the M's ended the 2026 regular season with the eighth-worst record in the majors.

As a result, the Mariners have the eighth-best odds of landing the top overall pick in the 2027 MLB draft lottery. Sure, there will be plenty who don't feel optimistic with the odds only being 3.13%, but let's not forget the circumstances facing the M's back in December of 2024. Despite having the second-lowest odds at 0.53% to land the top pick, they somehow jumped 12 spots in the 2025 MLB draft lottery to land the No. 3 overall pick.

The Mariners subsequently selected Kade Anderson at that spot, who at the time was generally regarded as the best pitcher in the 2025 draft class, but also arguably the best player overall. Given that Anderson has just been named Minor League Pitcher of the Year for 2026, this only reinforces that the M's made the right decision.

Some intriguing prospects for the Mariners to target pending how the 2027 MLB draft lottery plays out

In any event, as insurmountable as odds of 3.13% might seem, it's not an impossible situation and effectively six times better than 0.53%.

Plus, as with the 2025 MLB draft lottery outcome, it's not even about needing to land the top overall pick in order for it to be a success. If we go on Jonathan Mayo's way-too-early 2027 mock draft that he published for MLB.com back in July, there will be an intriguing pitcher available at No. 3, who just so happens to be a southpaw like Anderson. The player in question is Tomas Valincius of Mississippi State, who has an enticing three-pitch mix which includes a fastball that sits around 95 mph.

If the Mariners were to end up with the No. 4 overall pick, Mayo currently gives this position to Landon Hairston, the son of former Major League player Scott Hairston. And the outfielder is already making a name for himself in his own right as a 2026 Golden Spikes Award finalist who had one of the best seasons of any college hitter. Whether Valincius or Hairston, we're talking about a couple of winners either of whom we're confident the M's would be happy to land.

Not that this shameless attempt to give Mariners fans a silver lining doesn't come with a caveat, and we're not even talking about the team hoping to again move up in the draft order. More, that the MLB draft lottery is in line to take place at the Winter Meetings during December. However, as most people are painfully aware, the current Collective Bargaining Agreement is set to expire on Dec. 1 and we're more than likely headed to a lockout.

So yeah, first things first, let's see what happens with the lockout and how long it lasts. Although, while we have no doubt it will get ugly at time, we're confident the entire 2027 regular season won't be lost. The point being, pending whenever the lockout does end, Mariners fans can focus on the draft lottery with fingers crossed for a similar miraculous outcome to Dec. 10 in 2024, but with slightly better odds.

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