Mariners are in danger of closing the 1st half with a dud vs. MLB-best Tigers

The Seattle Mariners are staring down the barrel of a tough reality. They might limp into the All-Star break at .500 if things don’t turn around quickly. What’s standing in their way? The best team in baseball — the red-hot, unrelenting Detroit Tigers.

This matchup is no longer a surprise ambush. The Mariners have already learned their lesson against Detroit — the hard way. Last season, the Tigers owned them, winning five of six in the season series. That dominance rolled into 2025 when the teams met again in early April. At the time, Detroit’s fast start raised eyebrows, but no one outside of Detroit believed it was sustainable. The Tigers promptly took two of three from the M’s, and in hindsight, that series was yet another warning shot.

Now, with the uncertainty gone, the Tigers are the real deal.

Tigers could humble the Mariners once again ahead of the All-Star break

As of July 10, Detroit holds a 59-35 record — the best in the majors — and sit atop the AL Central with a commanding lead. And the Mariners are heading straight into the teeth of a juggernaut at Comerica Park, and hot off a devastating sweep at the hands of the New York Yankees, to boot.

For Seattle, the stakes are rising. This three-game set is shaping up to be a midseason gut-check, a measuring stick for a Mariners team still trying to find its footing against playoff-caliber opponents.

It won’t be easy. The Tigers are throwing their reigning AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal on the mound to pitch the series opener, and he’s been nearly unhittable this season. Skubal owns a sparkling 10-2 record with a 2.02 ERA and 148 strikeouts in just 116 innings. He’s already fired one of MLB’s eight complete-game shutouts this year and continues to dominate every lineup he faces. Simply put, he’s a nightmare matchup — and the Mariners will have to find a way to scratch out runs if they want any shot.

But it’s not just Skubal. The series is loaded with elite pitching matchups on both sides, and it may come down to which offense can break through.

Surprisingly, the numbers show the two lineups are closer than you’d think. The Mariners have actually out-homered the Tigers (125 to 121), and the two clubs rank back-to-back in offensive WAR — Detroit at sixth (50.1), Seattle right behind them at seventh (40.1). Still, the Tigers are producing more overall, ranking sixth in total runs scored compared to Seattle’s 13th.

For the Mariners to win this series — or even just avoid getting swept — two things must happen: starting pitchers must go deep, and the offense has to show up. That’s been an inconsistent formula for Seattle all year, but against the league’s top team, mediocrity won’t get it done.

A strong showing in Detroit could catapult the Mariners into the break with momentum and confidence. A sweep, however, would undo a lot of their recent progress and raise big questions about whether they’re truly a playoff team — or just another fringe contender stuck in the middle.

Game Times and Probable Pitchers for Mariners vs. Tigers, July 11-13

• Friday, July 11 at 4:10 p.m. PT: Luis Castillo vs. Tarik Skubal
• Saturday, July 12 at 10:10 a.m. PT: George Kirby vs. Casey Mize
• Sunday, July 13 at 10:10 a.m. PT: Logan Gilbert vs. Jack Flaherty