Mariners' Andrés Muñoz should lean into the pitch that eviscerated Astros menace

Andrés Muñoz's numbers may lead you to believe that he's had a terrible season, but that's a bit of an oversimplification. Of the 10 earned runs he has given up this year, seven were the result of just two appearances. He has been more effective than one might initially assume, but that doesn't mean there haven't been red flags.

His four-seam fastball has been his biggest weakness this season, with opposing hitters batting .467 against the pitch. It's still one of the hottest fastballs in the league, averaging 98.3 mph, but the shape places it comfortably in the dead zone, making it easier for batters to make contact. In this case, a higher velocity is actually a detriment since it results in more damage when barreled up.

As per usual, his slider has been his saving grace. But if he's unable to turn things around with the fastball, he may soon have to rely more on a different weapon in his arsenal. If velocity isn't doing the job, perhaps going the opposite direction could be what he needs.

Increased reliance on his changeup could be what Andrés Muñoz needs to return to dominance

Muñoz has never relied heavily on his off-speed offerings. Last year marked his highest usage for a full season (2.1%) and despite working on a kick change during last year's spring training, it never really found a place in his arsenal long-term.

This year, he has thrown it a total of nine times but it made an appearance at a critical time, helping him strike out Yordan Alvarez to secure the win for Seattle in the first game of this week's series against the Astros.

His changeup comes in quite a bit faster than most but in today's game, he's not the only one throwing the pitch faster than 90 mph — there are eight other qualified pitchers with changeups that exceed that threshold. The main value proposition of the pitch is that it gives him an arm-side option that complements his slider. He previously relied on a sinker for this purpose, but it suffered from similar problems as his heater and sinkers generally have lower whiff rates than changeups.

The pitch still seems to be a work in progress since he throws fewer than three per outing but opposing hitters haven't touched it yet, whiffing on the few swings they've managed. He may end up tinkering other things to get the results he's looking for, and now that the Mariners' starting rotation is back at full strength, he should have slightly more of a leash.

Reliever ERA is inherently mercurial so it could very well be the case that over a larger sample of innings, Muñoz's numbers fall more in line with his career norms. Altering his current style risks fixing what isn't broken, but failing to adapt to real concerns with his fastball could have even more detrimental effects.

It'll be up to Muñoz and the team to decide what's best but given the data, it seems like changing it up could very well be a viable option.

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