Mariners need to let Andrés Muñoz find missing link before making a closer change

This has not been Andrés Muñoz's year. His 6.00 ERA is an anomalous figure for someone who has been as consistently effective as he has in years past. Even if you don't consider his outing on April 15th that saw him give up five earned runs to the San Diego Padres, he has still looked inconsistent at best.

The latest example came in the second game of the Braves series, where he gave up what ended up being the game-winning run for Atlanta, a home run courtesy of Matt Olson in the top of the ninth inning.

His performance this year has been enough for some to question whether it's time for Seattle to find someone else to take over the closer job, at least for the time being. On the surface, it seems like a question with a simple answer, but the underlying metrics suggest that he may not actually be far off where he needs to be.

Andrés Muñoz is giving up a lot of hard contact but is still exhibiting some excellent closer qualities

It's no secret that Muñoz's kryptonite this year has been giving up hard contact. In just 15 innings pitched, he has already given up more home runs (3) than he did all of last year across 62.1 innings (2). His hard-hit rate of 50.0% is in the seventh percentile of qualified pitchers and his xWOBAcon, a metric used to measure the expected value of balls in play based on exit velocity and launch angle, is .533, significantly worse than the MLB average.

At the same time, he remains one of the best at making hitters look foolish. Among all pitchers with at least 15 innings pitched, his 37.9% strikeout rate is fourth and his whiff rate of 42.7% is second only to Mason Miller (56.5%). His chase rate of 36.4% is also in the top decile and higher than it has been in any season since 2022.

For the most part the recipe is the same as in previous seasons. His slider is responsible for the majority of his effectiveness while his four-seam fastball, while coming at an average velocity of 98.3 mph, plays second fiddle. However, his heater has been pummeled this year with opposing hitters slugging .750 against the pitch.

Muñoz's trust in his fastball seems shaken. His usage of it is down, and he isn't even throwing it 30% of the time in 0-0 counts. It's part of the reason his overall first-pitch strike percentage is down, resulting in him pitching behind in the count more often.

Overall, the shape of the fastball seems to be flatter and it's being located slightly closer to the heart of the zone than in years past. It was never a particularly effective pitch by run value but it did enough to keep hitters off-balance when having to hit against his slider.

So although he hasn't looked like his usually dominant self, he has shown many of the same qualities that made him great in years past, and someone like Muñoz deserves more of a leash before having his responsibility in the bullpen demoted. To make matters worse, it's not like Seattle is spoiled with an excess of healthy high-leverage relievers since three notable bullpen arms are now on the injured list.

The Mariners have been edging out wins by the skin of their teeth and their luck is bound to run out. However, one could make the argument that they've actually underperformed the level of talent on the field and sooner rather than later, they'll begin to play more in line with their expectations.

Andrés Muñoz isn't the only marquee name that has gotten off to a slow start and like his fellow teammates, he deserves to continue getting chances to prove his worth. But unlike his teammates, the pieces of another great season are clearly there, he just has to figure out how to put them together.

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