Mariners and Yankees meet again at key moment in Judge vs. Raleigh MVP race

When the Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees met for the first time in 2025 back on May 12, Aaron Judge was at the center of the baseball world and seemingly coasting to a third American League MVP award.

That was when Judge was going "Full Aaron Judge." His first 40 games of the season had yielded a .409/.494/.779 slash line. He also had 65 home runs and 14.3 fWAR to show for his last 162 games overall, which pretty much made watching him the modern-day equivalent of watching Babe Ruth in his prime.

Not a lot has changed with Judge since then. His batting average is now below .400, sure, but his OPS is still up over 1.200 and he leads the AL in at least 27 key statistical categories. Even for non-Yankees fans, it's another you-gotta-hand-it-to-him season for the 6-foot-7, 282-pound slugging god.

And yet, Judge has a very real problem in the AL MVP race on the eve of another three-game set between the Mariners and Yankees in New York: Cal Raleigh.

Cal Raleigh is carrying the Mariners and stating his case for the AL MVP

It's not like Raleigh was having a poor season when Judge and the Yankees rolled into Seattle back in May. He had a .917 OPS at the time, and that was even though he had been stuck on 12 homers since the second day of the month.

That drought ended in the first of three that the Mariners and Yankees played at T-Mobile Park, and Raleigh has been so hot since then that Judge himself is the only point of comparison for Seattle's 28-year-old catcher:

• Judge since May 12: 1.141 OPS, 19 HR, 35 RBI
• Raleigh since May 12: 1.102 OPS, 23 HR, 49 RBI

A two-homer day last Friday propelled Raleigh to 35 for the season, which accomplished multiple things at once. For one, it set a new career high. For two, it tied Ken Griffey Jr. for the most in Mariners history before the All-Star break. And for three, it made him the first player since 2001 to homer 35 times in his team's first 88 games.

With six games still left to go before the break, Raleigh has a real shot at Barry Bonds' all-time first-half record of 39 homers from 2001. He also has a shot at Judge's American League home run record of 62 from just three years ago, as he is currently on pace to finish with 63 long ones.

From a Mariners perspective, it is frustrating that Raleigh still ranks behind Judge in key MVP indicators like wins above replacement and win probability added. What is decidedly not frustrating, however, is just how many experts and fans alike outside of the Pacific Northwest are rallying to support "Big Dumper" in his AL MVP quest.

The home runs are obviously a big part of the push, yet there also seems to be a general recognition that Raleigh has no business putting up Judge-ian numbers while doing a much harder job than Judge himself. He has split his time between right field and designated hitter, whereas Raleigh has made 76 percent of his starts behind the plate.

Catcher is the single most important position on the defensive spectrum, and Raleigh remains solid defensively even if he hasn't quite lived up to his Platinum Glove-winning season from a year ago. Most notably, he's one of the best framers in the business.

More recently, something else has been happening that has major ramifications for the AL MVP race. It has to do with how the Yankees and Mariners are trending, which could not be more different.

Since June 13, Raleigh has continued to be front and center (i.e., 1.085 OPS and 13 HR) as the Mariners have won 15 out of 23. The Yankees, on the other hand, are 7-16 in this span. They have already fallen out of first place in the AL East and they only lead Seattle by 1.0 games for the top wild card spot.

Judge ought to be largely blameless for all this, but his 1.013 OPS since June 13 obscures how his clutch-hitting troubles have reemerged. He is just 5-for-24 with runners in scoring position, which makes him just another part of a larger problem for the Yankees.

Granted, it remains hard to decisively conclude that Raleigh has taken the lead in the AL MVP race, much less sewn the dang thing up. Judge is having the best season of what increasingly looks like a Hall of Fame-worthy career, and the Yankees are still a better team than the Mariners despite their recent skid.

Still, what we should all be able to agree on is that the AL MVP race is just that: a race. It simply wasn't when the Mariners and Yankees clashed for the first time two months ago. And for that, Raleigh deserves more credit than Judge does blame.

Game Times and Probable Pitchers for Mariners vs. Yankees, July 8-10

• Tuesday, July 8 at 4:05 p.m. PT: Logan Gilbert vs. Will Warren
• Wednesday, July 9 at 4:05 p.m. PT: Logan Evans vs. TBD
• Thursday, July 10 at 4:05 p.m. PT: Bryan Woo vs. Marcus Stroman