Mariners ALDS start could be Bryce Miller's last, best chance to save a lost season

When the curveball came that Bryan Woo would not feature at all in the AL Division Series, almost immediately the concern was how this would impact the Seattle Mariners rotation versus the Detroit Tigers. How would they deal with the absence of their best, most consistent and durable starter of the 2025 season?

The assumption by many was that Logan Gilbert would get the ball in Game 1, with Luis Castillo to follow in Game 2. Well, those some people making that prediction were only half-right, with the surprising subsequent decision by M's manager Dan Wilson to start George Kirby in the series opener at T-Mobile Park.

Even though the Mariners lost Game 1, it was tough to put it on Kirby, with a mostly listless offense carrying the majority of the blame (but not their weight). In any event, Wilson's calculated gamble to hold Gilbert back until Game 3 was vindicated on Tuesday, as he pitched 6.0 tremendous innings and in the process only allowed four hits and one earned run.

Mariners will go with Bryce Miller in Game 4

Combined with the offense coming to life — which we effectively predicted it would beforehand — the Mariners went on to win 8-4 and put themselves on the cusp of their first AL Championship Series since 2001. Thoughts then turned to who would start for the M's in Game 4 on Wednesday, with the decision confirmed soon after that it will be Bryce Miller.

As harsh as it might sound, going with Bryce Miller in Game 4 is going to make a lot of people nervous, and understandably so. The reality is this has been a challenging season for the righty, highlighted by going from a rotation-leading 3.4 WAR last season to the worst at -0.8 in 2025.

Miller's campaign has been hampered by a right elbow inflammation that dates back to last year and resulted in two stints on the Injured List this season. Regardless, he just hasn't been able to get back on track and after returning from his second stint on the IL, he produced a 5.62 ERA in eight starts to finish the regular season.

Also making the decision to start Miller in Detroit a major gamble — and accentuating the importance of the absent Woo — is his 5.56 ERA in his nine road starts this year. This was the highest ERA of anyone in the rotation, including Emerson Hancock and Logan Evans, who started 16 and 15 games respectively.

Dan Wilson puts his money where his mouth is

You have to imagine Miller will be on a short leash with so much at stake, although his manager has full confidence in his pitcher. Speaking to the media prior to Miller's last start against the Los Angeles Dodgers about the challenges he has faced this year, Wilson said:

"You know, every player goes through it at certain levels, but I think Bryce has really put that in the rear view mirror for him and has thrown the ball well especially of late ... Being on the IL and going through all that is difficult, but I think he was able to handle it all so well and find himself back now to where he’s in a good spot."

Dan Wilson

Wilson is renowned for continually having faith in all of his players, but Miller surely represents one of the biggest tests of this admirable philosophy. This is arguably the last best chance for the 27-year-old to save his season, and if it goes wrong the Mariners face the prospect of a deciding fifth game back in Seattle versus superstar pitcher Tarik Skubal, which is not a desired (ideal?) outcome no matter how much success the team has had against him in 2025.