Mariners 2025 projections: How a path to World Series opened during spring training

The Seattle Mariners completed their Cactus League schedule on Monday and they finished tied at the bottom of the standings with a 11-19 record. However, there is actually plenty of reason for optimism ahead of their season and home opener on Thursday versus the Athletics.

Look no further than FanGraphs for a sign of the belief in the Mariners despite a less than inspiring offseason. The M's have gained an edge on the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros just since March 17, and now have the best odds of winning the AL West at 35.7 percent. The Rangers are 28.7 percent and the Astros are 27.6 percent.

In fact, the extent of FanGraphs' belief in the Mariners goes as far as giving them the second-best odds at 11.5 percent to actually win the American League pennant, behind only the New York Yankees at 13.6 percent.

That's right, a team which has never been to the World Series and been to the playoffs only once since 2001 is viewed as having an excellent chance of representing the AL in the Fall Classic.

This understandably leads to the question of how we got to this point. The Mariners didn't suddenly get better in the last week or so, and some fans are surely still angry at the front office for not taking a big swing during the offseason, specifically for a much-needed infielder.

A perfect storm of opportunity for the Mariners

To answer the question, though, it comes down to a combination of what the Mariners do possess, along with what has been going on with other teams in their division and the American League as a whole.

The Mariners' strengths have been discussed ad nauseam, so we'll only briefly reiterate them. First and foremost is a rotation which was No. 1 in the Majors last season and is once more expected to be among the best, even allowing for the absence of George Kirby to begin the 2025 campaign.

There is also a bullpen which, despite running on fumes by the end of last year, was still overall one of the better ones in baseball. Throw in the returns and hopefully full health of Matt Brash and Gregory Santos, and this is a group of relievers which should benefit the M's come crunch time in games.

Offensively, Cal Raleigh's reputation as one of the best catchers in the game only continues to grow. Meanwhile, Julio Rodríguez is so close to becoming the superstar he's meant to be if he can become more consistent, and along with Randy Arozarena and Víctor Robles could form one of the top outfields in the Majors.

The only real concern on offense is the aforementioned infield. However, J.P. Crawford at least is due a bounce-back campaign, Jorge Polanco looked good during spring training since his return from surgery. More broadly, let's not forget how the offense looked as a whole last September under Dan Wilson, with the third-most runs in the Majors.

Mariners' AL West rivals dealing with adversity

Turning to the Mariners' divisional rivals, the Astros remain the biggest obstacle just by virtue of their past success. They've made the playoffs in eight straight seasons, and in that time have a resume which includes seven AL West titles, four appearances in the World Series and two championships.

However, the Astros might now be there for the taking, with the Mariners already having improved their head-to-head success against the team from Houston. After a period of being dominating — including going an embarrassing 1-18 in 2019 — the M's have won the season series in both of the past two years.

In addition, the 88 wins by the Astros last year were their fewest in a full season since they won 84 in 2016. They were also swept out of the playoffs by the upstart Detroit Tigers, ending of phenomenal run of seven consecutive trips to the AL Championship Series.

Arguably most telling of all, though, is the Astros losing two of their best players in Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker. Add in moving Jose Altuve from second base to left field and looking like an abject failure, and this is surely the opportunity the Mariners have been waiting for.

As for the Rangers, they have been mostly an afterthought by only finishing higher than third once in the past eight seasons. However, that was also the one season in 2023, when they qualified for the playoffs as a wild card team and went on to win their first World Series.

There has been some suggestion that the Rangers will rebound from a losing record last year and look closer to the team which won it all a season earlier. However, not helping with this hope is a rotation which was average at best in 2024, and is now in even more trouble.

The rotation is without Jon Gray, who is expected to be out until late June with a right wrist fracture and Cody Bradford, who will be out till late May at the earliest with left elbow soreness. The Rangers went out and made a desperation signing with 35-year-old Patrick Corbin, who is very hittable.

Biggest obstacle to the Mariners also hurting

Finally we come to the Yankees, with it being entirely understandable that they would be the favorites to represent the AL. However, just like the Rangers, they are dealing with some major injury absences.

As we covered earlier this month, the Yankees will be without five-time All-Star and 2024 ALCS MVP Giancarlo Stanton to begin the season, as he deals with elbow injuries and a chronic calf issue. They will also be absent reigning AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil, who was diagnosed with a lat strain and will be out until June.

Things have gotten even worse for the Yankees since then, with Gerrit Cole having to undergo season-ending Tommy John surgery. To say the team will miss the 2023 Cy Young winner and six-time All-Star is a significant understatement.

No one takes any pleasure in any player suffering an injury, but the reality remains that the problems of other teams contribute to why the Mariners are emerging as a serious contender. It really is up to the M's to take advantage of the misfortune of others and aim for a serious run at the Wold Series.

This is also interesting because, despite all the flack that Mariners ownership, Jerry Dipoto, and company get, they have put together a (mostly) strong roster. In any event, the reality is that a path to the World Series has opened up for the M's, and it's up to them to grab this golden opportunity by the scruff of the neck.

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