Mariners' 1st World Series feels further away after Blue Jays dominate ALCS Game 3

For the Seattle Mariners, the only positive takeaway from Game 3 of the American League Championship Series is that it did not spoil their lead in the series. It was never going to, and what was true going in is also true coming out: They only need two more wins to reach the World Series for the first time in their history.

A 2-1 lead doesn't feel as clad in iron as a 2-0 lead, however. And if anyone has a way to sugarcoat the 13-4 shellacking that the Toronto Blue Jays laid on the Mariners in Game 3 of the ALCS on Wednesday, we'd honestly like to hear it.

The only fun part for the home team was the first inning, in which Julio Rodríguez homered again and George Kirby navigated around a two-out single by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. But then the Blue Jays scored the game's next 12 runs, with eight members of their starting nine eventually driving in at least one run and five of them sending a ball over the fence in the process.

There goes Kirby's formerly sterling reputation as a playoff performer, not to mention whatever hope the Mariners had of an ALCS sweep after shocking Canada by taking the first two games in Toronto.

It feels like having a Band-Aid ripped off by a slap across the face, and the natural fear now is whether the Blue Jays are preparing another fresh one for the Mariners.

The real Blue Jays showed up and showed Seattle what they're all about

History remains on the Mariners' side, of course. Teams that have taken a 2-0 lead in a best-of-seven series have gone on to win the series 78 times in 93 tries. For teams that won the first two games on the road, the success rate improves to 24 out of 27.

The Mariners can still like how they match up against the Blue Jays in the next two games. For Game 4 on Thursday, they'll have Luis Castillo, who had a 2.60 ERA at home, going against Max Scherzer, who had a 5.19 ERA this season and last pitched on September 24. Hopefully, the Mariners will then be able to welcome Bryan Woo back for Game 5 on Friday.

And yet, what luck the Mariners had in the first two games in Toronto clearly ran out in Game 3. They managed to stifle Toronto's offense in Games 1 and 2, notably holding it to one hit in 41 total at-bats after the second inning. But you could feel the dam straining, and it finally broke on Wednesday as the Blue Jays racked up 18 hits, with 11 coming on batted balls over 100 mph.

The first two games of the series were not the real Blue Jays offense. This, folks, is the real Blue Jays offense. It really is the best of both worlds, as it ranked last in strikeout rate and fourth in hard-hit balls during the regular season. It basically doesn't do "all or nothing," so the nothing that it did in Games 1 and 2 might as well have been a promise for the all of Game 3.

Whether the Mariners' own offense can hang with Toronto's is not the question. The Mariners did not score as prolifically in the regular season, but they hit home runs and stole bases better than the Blue Jays, both of which came into play in Games 1 and 2.

Yet whereas the Mariners know from this season — and really every year since 2000 — that their offense is going to be just a little less potent at T-Mobile Park, the Blue Jays seem immune to its large dimensions and marine layer. Including the regular season, they have now scored 34 runs in four games in Seattle.

Perhaps the odds of them keeping that are up weak. Or at least, not as strong as the Mariners' odds of abiding by history and making sure their initial 2-0 lead ultimately holds.

What is inarguable either way is that the Blue Jays are back in this series, with the whole vibe having shifted. Whereas the Mariners might have strolled through it, now they have to fight their way out of it.