Luke Raley's 2027 salary projection points him toward exit from Mariners

The 2026 season was meant to be one of redemption for Luke Raley, and he couldn't have started much better. By the end of the campaign however, he was in a frustrating place and with plenty of uncertainty surrounding his future with the Mariners. Now, following the release of projected salaries in 2027 for arbitration-eligible players, it's looking increasingly unlikely he will be back in Seattle next season.

Raley agreed a salary of $2.05 million back in January for the 2026 campaign, to avoid arbitration in his first year of eligibility. However, based on MLBTR projecting the 32-year-old to make $3.1 million next season, this would probably be a bit too much for the Mariners justify. Not that this is simply a case of the salary projection alone determining his future with the team.

When it comes to Raley, his 2026 season can be broken down into three distinct segments, with the first one seeing a slugging resurgence that had him hitting .280 with a .932 OPS and 164 wRC+ through the end of May. Sure there were some red flags there -- particularly a painfully high Whiff% -- but while his overall productivity seemed unsustainable, he was still expected to be a useful platoon player moving forward.

A complete contrast to Luke Raley's hot start in 2026, which has likely set the stage for his exit from Seattle

Instead, the second segment of Raley's 2026 campaign saw him fall off the proverbial cliff ledge, as his explosive bat gave way to what could have easily been a wet twig. During June and July he only managed to hit .152 with a .441 OPS and 27 wRC+, as fans started to have flashbacks to last year. His 2025 season saw him struggle at the plate, not helped by a couple of trips to the injured list with a right oblique strain and then a back spasm. He was ultimately worth -0.3 b WAR in 73 games.

Some people wondered if Raley might be struggling with another injury, and these fears became a reality on Aug. 1, when he was placed on the 10-day Injured List with a left forearm strain. Then came the news on Aug. 6 that he was to undergo season-ending surgery, to cement the third segment of his 2026 season. As much as the issue was described as one which he had dealt with for several years, this proved to be yet another example this year of a Mariners player attempting to grind through an injury which was clearly affecting them, rather than getting it resolved sooner.

Raley couldn't have done much better during his first year in Seattle back in 2024, when he set a number of career-highs including 22 home runs, 58 RBI, 128 OPS+, 137 games and a 3.2 bWAR. Unfortunately for him however, these past two seasons have been a struggle, highlighted by a 97 OPS+ and -0.3 bWAR over 168 combined appearances.

This isn't just about injuries or salary though, with Dominic Canzone having established himself on the roster and the dangerous Lazaro Montes now also aboard. The harsh reality is that the Mariners don't need another left-hitting right fielder/DH type. It all points towards Raley being the odd man out, with him hitting the open market.

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