Jorge Polanco's slump is casting a dark cloud over Mariners' latest surge

Save for a blip in a recent homestand versus the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees, a lot has gone right for the Seattle Mariners since they began the 2025 season at 3-7. They have a 27-19 record, sit atop the AL West, and are only 3.0 games back of the Detroit Tigers for the best record in the majors.

With last year's Major League-leading rotation compromised by injuries and some inconsistency, it's a revitalized offense which has proven to be the catalyst behind the Mariners' surge up the standings. Yes, there's still challenges for the lineup with strikeouts and their batting average, but they are tied-fourth in walks, 10th in OPS, sixth in wRC+, and, most importantly, 11th in scoring.

At the heart of this impressive productivity, the biggest pleasant surprise has arguably been Jorge Polanco. Let's face it, not many people were enamored with bringing him back after a disastrous 2024 campaign in Seattle, but Jerry Dipoto insisted he would be a better after undergoing offseason surgery on left knee.

Jerry Dipoto proven to be correct and then some about Jorge Polanco

This proved to be an understatement. Ahead of Tuesday night's clash with the Chicago White Sox, Polanco is leading all Mariners with a .978 OPS while sitting second behind only Cal Raleigh with 10 home runs and 30 RBI. This doesn't mean there's no concern, however, with the reality that Polanco has experienced a significant slump so far in May.

At the end of April, Polanco had a stunning 1.226 OPS and 260 wRC+, while batting .384 and hitting nine home runs to sit one off the Major League lead. Since May began, though, he has a .576 OPS and 71 wRC+, while only batting .200 and with just one home run.

On top of all this, the 31-year-old switch-hitter still can't hit right-handed, but where has it seemingly all gone wrong for him? One thing which jumps out specifically is his ground-ball rate of 60.5 percent in May, which is effectively double his 30.8 percent from during late March and April.

It also shouldn't be surprising that after hitting seven home runs off fastballs during April, Polanco's fastball percentage has dropped from 47.9 percent to 39.2 percent so far in May. As a result, the overriding concern among fans must be to wonder if his recent productivity — or lack thereof — is going to evolve into an extended slump?

Don't fret too much about Jorge Polanco just yet, Mariners fans

Well, there's actually good reason to believe the 2019 All-Star is going to at least have a chance to return to the type of form which saw him win his first ever Player of the Week award near the end of April. For example, his strikeout and walk rates have remained solid even during what has undoubtedly been a challenging month for him.

Additionally, Polanco is still hitting the ball hard at 92.0 MPH this month, which is only a whisker away from his 92.6 MPH during late March and April. Heck, at some point you just figure the guy is also going to get some good, old-fashioned luck, which would in turn mitigate his slump.

Further, a look at the Dominican Republic native's Baseball Savant page in general is reason to be encouraged, with how consistent he's remained in certain aspects this season. For example, he's in the 99th percentile for xBA and 98th percentile for xwOBA, while also being in the 97th percentile for both xSLG and Squared-Up%.

Nothing certain either way for the Mariners

Of course, just because some of the underlying numbers look good doesn't guarantee that Polanco will be back. Although it was always suspected by many that he wouldn't be able to maintain his insane pace from the beginning of this season, similarly they also didn't expect him to crash quite as dramatically as he has in May.

In fairness to the former Minnesota Twin, he doesn't have to get back to where he was before this month — not that anyone in Seattle would mind — if the Mariners offense collectively continues producing as they have done to this point. At the same time, what they don't want is for him to continue looking more like last year's version in the long term, as this would obviously not be a good thing for anyone concerned.

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