Jerry Dipoto's blind faith in Victor Robles cost Mariners more than it should have

The book on Victor Robles' time with the Seattle Mariners closed just as unceremoniously as it opened. He was a discarded outfielder when he joined them in 2024, and now he's a discarded outfielder once again after the club declined his $9 million option for 2027 on Thursday.

The choice to do so didn't cost the Mariners nothing, as the 29-year-old Robles is now owed a $500,000 buyout. It had nonetheless loomed as the easiest call of Jerry Dipoto's offseason. Robles appeared in just 97 games across the last two seasons, missing the other 227 largely because of a string of serious injuries. When healthy, he was barely a replacement-level producer.

Even though Robles doesn't turn 30 until next May, he's already played in 704 games across 10 seasons in the majors. He still has his merits, including good speed, a strong arm and the ability to apply both to all three outfield positions. Teams are bound to be interested, even if all they're willing to offer is a minor league contract.

The Mariners were too quick to believe in Victor Robles, and they got burned by it

As for the Mariners, the "What did you learn?" energy coming from their decision to decline Robles' option is strong indeed.

Their original deal with him in June of 2024 happened in the immediate wake of his release by the Washington Nationals, and it was a textbook case of a team taking a flier on a player. The Mariners badly needed offense. And as much as Robles wasn't known for his bat in D.C., he had been as a prospect once upon a time. MLB Pipeline even had him as a 60-grade hitter in 2019.

Rarely do low-risk gambles work out as well as this one did. Robles played in 77 games with Seattle down the stretch of 2024, and hit .328 with a 155 wRC+. It was when he was 42 games into that stretch that the Mariners came calling with a two-year, $9.75 million contract offer, which surprised even Robles.

He was due for free agency at the end of the 2024 season, so the play for Dipoto was to catch lightning in a bottle. Even at the time, though, there wasn't much reason to believe that it would work. There were warning signs aplenty (i.e., a .328 BA vs. a .268 xBA) that Robles' early success as a Mariner was not sustainable, which made the extension offer come off as a vibes-based decision.

Looking back, his late-2024 run with Seattle is exactly the kind of outlier you'd expect:

• With Nationals, 2017-2024: 80 wRC+
• With Mariners, 2024: 155 wRC+
• With Mariners, 2025-2026: 81 wRC+

There was a half-season in which Robles could hit. For the other 90 percent of his career, he's been roughly 20 percent worse than the average MLB hitter. He is who he is, even when he was tricking the Mariners into believing otherwise.

So, the lightning never got in the bottle and the Mariners are out a little under $10 million because of it. They did at least get that one awesome catch by Robles in Houston last September, but it's ultimately one memorable spot in a sea of nothing. The goal now is to find someone to take his spot on the bench, which will hopefully be someone with a better bat and even more versatility.

The broader lesson that Dipoto should have learned is to be careful about latching onto guys who make a strong first impression. Thus comes an inevitable side-eye at the Josh Naylor contract. After he failed to muster even replacement-level production this season, it could be tenfold the mistake that Robles' contract was if the Mariners fail to get out of it.

While we wait to see how that pans out, there's no harm in giving Robles a tip of the ol' cap. If nothing else, he was always easy to root for as a Mariner. And he will be for his next team, too.

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