It took no time at all for Mariners fans' dream Cubs trade to go up in smoke

The Seattle Mariners started the offseason with a bang when they signed Josh Naylor to a five-year, $92.5 million contract, which was met with almost universal praise by the fanbase. Since then, that same fanbase has been waiting for another big move, to provide more encouragement that the organization is committed to building on arguably the best season in franchise history.

As this wait continues, fans can be forgiven for feeling a bit anxious about what the Mariners will do next. Not helping with this anxiety is Jorge Polanco's decision to sign with the New York Mets despite his preference to remain in Seattle, combined with the likelihood that fan favorite Eugenio Suárez will also not be back in the Pacific Northwest next season.

Sure, the Mariners have made some other intriguing moves such as trade for Jose A. Ferrer to boost the bullpen and signing free agent Rob Refsnyder to add an invaluable right-handed bat. However, Ferrer cost the M's one of their top prospects in Harry Ford, while Refsnyder has never been an everyday player.

This is a fanbase used to things somehow going wrong even when the circumstances are seemingly set up for success, so they ideally want the reassurance which would come with another big signing. Unfortunately this hope has taken a blow in recent days, first with the fantasy of Ketel Marte reuniting with the Mariners being abruptly ended by the news that the Arizona Diamondbacks won't be trading the three-time All-Star.

Another one bites the dust for the Mariners

Now, a second knockout blow has been landed with an update that the Chicago Cubs are likely going to keep Nico Hoerner for the 2026 season and go over the luxury tax. The update came from ESPN insider Jesse Rogers during an appearance on ESPN 1000 in Chicago:

It should be noted this is a belief from Rogers as opposed to outright confirmation, with The Athletic's Sahadev Sharma advising the Cubs are at least open to the idea of fielding calls (subscription required). However, Sharma did add that the organization would have to be blown away by any offer, something which is extremely unlikely given that Hoerner is only signed through 2026.

There's no denying that adding someone like Hoerner would be a significant boost for the Mariners, with him being a premium glove in the infield and coming off a season which included career highs of a 6.2 bWAR and 114 OPS+. His Baseball Savant page only further shows what an all around talent he is, highlighted by ranking in the 99th percentile for Whiff % and K %, as well as the 98th percentile for xBA and Range (OAA).

Now yes, you can make the argument that the Mariners trading for Hoerner was not likely to happen anyway. As laid out by SoDo Mojo's Tremayne Person on Monday, aside from the two-time Gold Glove winner becoming a free agent after the 2026, Jerry Dipoto has always had a preference for younger players with potential and more team control.

In any event, this still counts as bad news overall, as there's no doubt Hoerner would have immediately strengthened the lineup and really proved to the fanbase that the organization is going all-in this coming season. Instead, this now leaves one less player for the Mariners and Boston Red Sox to fight over, which might not be great for the M's.