How one overlooked injury is hurting Mariners more than anyone is admitting

Mention Carlos Vargas and there's a good chance a healthy segment of the Mariners fanbase will instinctively label him one of the main culprits of causing stress and anxiety last season, due to his erratic performances. And yet his absence so far this season due to a right lat strain, has actually highlighted that he's more important to the bullpen than many appreciated.

Vargas suffered his injury while playing catch ahead of Opening Day, meaning the Mariners were effectively a pitcher down for their first game of the season versus the Guardians. This proved to be just the first of many occasions when his absence would be felt, as he was placed on the 15-day IL the following day and subsequently transferred to the 60-day IL on April 8.

For all his foibles, Vargas is still a pitcher who manager Dan Wilson thought enough of last season to make the second-most used reliever out of the bullpen, with 77.0 innings. The reality is he's been tough to cover for during his absence, with the M's being one of only three teams that have had at least eight relievers pitch 11-plus innings in 2026.

Carlos Vargas' absence has resulted in far-reaching ramifications for the rest of the bullpen

In a classic case of the butterfly effect, if Vargas had been healthy the Mariners would have used Casey Legumina less, with the harsh reality that he stunk before getting designated for assignment and then traded three days after. Additionally, Cole Wilcox would also have been used less, with him having good stuff but just not putting it together on the mound.

By extension, this would have meant more rest for the likes of Eduard Bazardo, Gabe Speier and Matt Brash. And on the subject of Brash specifically, whether he winds up on the IL or not, his seemingly fragile health only further reinforces the importance of Vargas to a bullpen which is still lacking something despite the offseason acquisition of Jose A. Ferrer.

Just to be clear, having Vargas available isn't purely a case of an additional durable arm to spread out the innings more within the bullpen. Yes, he can cause plenty of stress and anxiety, highlighted by his 18.9 percent whiff rate ranking in the bottom decile of qualified pitchers last season. However, we're also talking about a pitcher who has the talent to become the Mariners' next elite reliever.

As per SoDo Mojo's Jason Wang, using a FanGraphs metric called Stuff+, each of Vargas' four pitches grade out above average, while Pitching+ has him tied with Speier as the best qualifying M's reliever. And while it's a case where the righty still needs to prove he can be more consistent on the mound, the upside is there.

Overall, we appreciate statistics can be manipulated to support any argument, with one example of Vargas' tremendous 57.1 percent ground ball rate last year being countered by 14.9 percent of batted balls which made it in the air being home runs. Ultimately though, everything which has happened so far this season proves to us the Mariners would be better off with him being healthy and back in the bullpen.

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