How does Red Sox-Garrett Crochet contract extension affect Mariners pitching?

The Boston Red Sox made plenty of eyes go wide on Monday, and it's fair to assume that some of them belonged to certain Seattle Mariners executives.

As Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report, the Red Sox and ace left-hander Garrett Crochet are in agreement on a new contract extension that will pay out $170 million over six years. FanSided's Robert Murray further reported that the deal also includes escalators that could max its value out at $180 million.

Meanwhile, the Mariners have as many as four starting pitchers they should be looking to extend. What this new deal means for them is therefore as fair a question as any.

Crochet Got Paid More Than Expected

Part of the reason Crochet's deal is so attention-grabbing is that it's a richer contract than anyone might have expected him to get.

On the one hand, he's just 25 years old and he was an All-Star in 2024, for which he ended up striking out 12.9 batters per nine innings. On the other, he missed all of 2022 and most of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery, and he has all of 33 major league starts to his name.

In attempting to ballpark an extension for Crochet in March, Tim Britton of The Athletic landed on five years and $110 million as a fair deal. The lefty's earning power potentially went much higher than that, but it was a solid middle ground between his shortage of experience and his huge upside, not to mention his encroaching date with free agency after the 2026 season.

By actually getting six years and $170 million from the Red Sox, Crochet didn't just beat Britton's projection. He destroyed it, overshooting his expected guarantee by 55 percent.

Implications for Seattle's Quartet of Young Starters

The Mariners already have Luis Castillo signed through 2027, but he's the only one of the club's primary starters who has been taken care of. As to the others, here are their ages and the years they're controlled through:

• Logan Gilbert: 27, through 2027
• George Kirby: 27, through 2028
• Bryce Miller: 26, through 2029
• Bryan Woo: 25, through 2029

With Cal Raleigh having recently signed a six-year, $105 million extension, all eyes are now on Gilbert as the next in line to get his big payday. As Adam Jude of the Seattle Times reported Sunday, Gilbert is keen on staying in Seattle and Mariners owner John Stanton is thinking even bigger.

“I’d love to see Logan stay here,” Stanton said, per Jude. “Frankly, I’d love to see all the four young pitchers stay here. It takes an interest on the players part and an interest on the organization’s part. But I think we, as an organization, are real believers in having a core group. There’s some symmetry...in keeping a group together that is as talented as our guys are, and I feel great about that.”

Yet after Crochet went so far above his apparent market value, you have to wonder if the bar for Seattle's hurlers has been reset. Britton also projected extensions for Gilbert and Kirby in his piece, coming to six years, $126 million for Gilbert and six years, $100 million for Kirby. If they also went 55 percent over those guarantees, Gilbert would score $195 million and Kirby would get $155 million.

Can the Mariners spend that kind of money? It sure seems as if they can. But this is also a franchise that has only gone above $150 million for a player three times in its history, so expecting it to add two more in short order may be unrealistic.

The club stands a better chance of getting a relative discount on Miller and/or Woo. They are less accomplished than Gilbert and Kirby, both in terms of quantity (i.e., major league starts) and quality (i.e., total WAR). As both are also further from free agency, each pitcher may be more amenable to getting what he can now in lieu of risking injury.

The ideal scenario for fans certainly involves the Mariners locking up Gilbert, Kirby, Miller and Woo, and it'll do for a hopeful sign that this is at least what Stanton wants to do. As for whether he can make it happen, well, that's up to him.

"We'll see" is an uninspiring message to end on, yet that ultimately is the reality of this situation.