George Kirby has transformed from Mariners All-Star to broken reclamation project

The Seattle Mariners haven't been eliminated from playoff contention just yet, but rooting for them feels a little beside the point right now. With a losing season already clinched, a more pressing question is what must be fixed.

For example: How did we get to a point where George Kirby is walking five guys in one start?

This actually happened in the right-hander's outing against the Los Angeles Angels on Wednesday, and it was over just 4.1 innings. Pretty remarkable, given that he had never walked more than three hitters in any of his first 140 major league starts. As much as it should feel like a blip, it feels more like an inevitable outcome of a slide that's getting harder to ignore:

• 2022-2024: 3.43 ERA, 1.093 WHIP
• 2025-2026: 4.23 ERA, 1.302 WHIP

Earlier in his career, Kirby was an All-Star in 2023 and seemingly on his way to even greater heights. As in, Cy Young-level heights. Yet so much for that… unless the 28-year-old righty is still fixable.

It's possible that George Kirby needs a near-total reboot to become an ace again

One bit of absolutely, positively good news is that Kirby is at least healthy. After making just 23 starts following an early-season shoulder injury in 2025, he'll make his 30th start of this season his next time out.

Just as important, the goods are still there. He's averaging 96.7 mph on the four-seamer, a new career high. Both his Stuff+ (101) and Location+ (112) scores are right in line with his career norms. The picture one gets from these numbers is of a pitcher who should be shoving.

And yet, his strikeout rate is a career-low 19.9 percent, his walk rate is a career-high 6.1 percent, and his career-high 4.24 ERA mirrors a career-high 4.18 xERA.

Diagnosis-wise, one thing that stands out is that Kirby does not attack hitters like he used to. That's in the sense that he doesn't pound the strike zone, get first-pitch strikes, or get to two strikes:

It's good to be ahead in the count, as Kirby knows from holding hitters to a .647 OPS after an 0-1 count and to a .619 OPS when he has two strikes. Overall, hitters have a .775 OPS against him.

As for why he isn't attacking the zone as often, that could be a mechanical thing, a mental thing, or both. His arm slot has dropped since last year's shoulder scare. He also doesn't throw as many fastballs, instead shifting focus to his sweeper and the other offerings in his seven-pitch arsenal.

Fixing George Kirby might not be up to the Mariners going forward

All of the above strongly suggests that Kirby's struggles over the last two years are more than just a case of sustained bad luck. He was better when he threw from a higher release point. And especially given his increased velocity, there's a case for him to go back to being a fastball-first pitcher with a smaller set of trusted secondaries.

These are things the Mariners can work on with Kirby, but that depends on the directions they'll take this winter. With Dan Wilson and his coaches reportedly on thin ice, there's the question of whether pitching coach Pete Woodworth and director of pitching strategy Trent Blank will return for 2027.

Then there's the question of whether Kirby himself will return. He attracted plenty of interest ahead of the August 3 trade deadline, and teams may well circle back around this winter. Despite his performance over the last two seasons, he's still a relatively young guy with loads of talent and club control through 2028.

Either way, Kirby will be a Mystery Box when next season comes around. Is there still a top-of-the-rotation starter in there? Or is there merely a faint echo of one?

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