3 reasons why Mariners' George Kirby is winning the Cy Young

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There are a few problems in sports I can think of that are more privileged sounding than trying to figure out who the Ace is on your favorite team. I'm not going to say that it makes a fan sound entitled, more along the lines of just being a really fun conversation and a good indicator for success when you can have an argument about which pitcher on your team should be the frontrunner for Cy Young odds and predictions heading into the season.

It's where the Mariners are at with Luis Castillo and George Kirby. Shoot, you sort of have to add Logan Gilbert in there since he is sitting in the top 10 in the American League for Cy Young odds as well. He's a bit back of Castillo and Kirby though, who are neck-and-neck in most places when you are looking at the preseason odds.

Kirby seems like he is on the cusp of seriously entering the conversation for the award. Not just sitting on the outside waiting his turn, but taking control as one of the frontrunners who could grab hold of the award and stay in contention for the next decade. He seems to be next in line for the Cliff Lee/Greg Maddux type pitcher who not only has incredible control but is feared as one of the best pitchers in the league.

Let's get into it and look at three reasons why the 2024 Cy Young is George Kirby's to lose.

Reason #1 he will: Potential to set BB/9 related records

This isn't the flashiest record. It doesn't hit the baseball news headlines like Spencer Strider does with his strikeouts. Part of that makes sense, strikeouts are just more appealing from a viewership standpoint. Yet, he is never going to come anywhere near what guys like Randy Johnson have done in a season, and that's why more attention need to be paid to Kirby and how he commands the zone.

Anytime that you are able to talk about one of the ten best seasons in the history of baseball, it's amazing. George Kirby had the 8th greatest K/BB rate in a single season in 2023 with his 9.05 K/BB. 8th best all-time for anything is something that should sit at the top of your resume, and it truly seems like Kirby could do it again. Kirby was sick at the end of 2022, and had 7 walks in his last three starts. Otherwise, he had a rate of 1.15 BB/9 and a K/9 of 8.2.

Could he strike out a few more players this year, and keep that low walk rate? I really don't think that he is going to break the all-time mark of Phil Hughes and his 11.625, but he can get another top 10 season. If Kirby was to walk 19 people again, while throwing 200 IP, his BB/9 would be 0.855. Combine that with a K rate like he had his rookie year, and you would be looking at a mark of 10.737, which would be the 3rd-best mark ever. To beat Hughes, he would need a K rate of around 9.95.

Kirby is most of the best in the game, possibly of the modern era at controlling the strike zone. It should catch voters attention, as limiting baserunners paired with Ks is a great look for any pitcher.

Reason #2 he will: Leading this staff means something

This ties back in to the beginning of the article. The Mariners have a really strong pitching staff, possibly the best in baseball. Especially when you look at the top-3 of a rotation.

To lead that staff, being viewed not just as the best of the group but as a true Ace, that truly means something. Especially if they all do as good as the oddsmakers think that they are going to do. If fans and voters are able to look at your team and see you as the Ace, the best, and the one leading the team (hopefully) to the playoffs, it's going to be hard to not vote for that pitcher as the Cy Young winner, aside from anyone else having a insanely spectacular or historical year.

Kirby has the personality and the "edge" that your leader needs. Sure, he doesn't look like a wily veteran or anything of that nature, but he's got that dawg in him and shows plenty of emotion on the mound. So often, we default to stats. Especially in baseball, when there is literally a stat for anything and everything.

However, there is that other part to it that matters as well. The inherent trust and belief that your guy is going to get it done, lead the way, and put the team on his back. Kirby is growing into that role, and this could be the year that he fully takes it on.

Reason #3 he will: He's only getting better

This is the kicker, right? That George Kirby is only getting better. 2024 is going to be his age-26 season, and his 3rd season in the bigs. He's not even to his prime yet, and usually, pitchers continue to get better and better at this point in their career. Luis Castillo is entering his age-31, but with pitchers, thats still in your prime, albeit the back end (normally). Kirby is just getting there.

Could we see a little uptick in strikeouts to that mid-high 9 range? What if he decides to really embrace the K and lets the walk rate up into that 1.5-1.8 range, but we see the K range go into the 11's? Is that going to make him a better pitcher? It could. Or we do see the next iteration of Lee or Maddux, and he turns in some of those seasons where everything goes together, and we are looking at a 200+ IP, sub 20 BB, 200+ strikeout season where he is fighting for 20 wins.

If continues to learn how to pitch, and starts getting even more weak contact and "cheap" outs where guys are just slowly rolling balls over to the infielders and spraying fly balls to the OF that are easy catches, we could be looking at not just the Cy Young, but a frontrunner for the award for years to come.

George Kirby is only getting better, and there is a good chance that he goes home with the most coveted indivudual award out there for pitchers in 2024.

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