Everything to know about Mariners' standing in AL playoff race as September begins

Just like that, we're already into the final month of the 2025 season, even though it doesn't feel like that long ago since Opening Day against the Athletics. In any event, the main thing is that the Seattle Mariners are very much in the playoff equation and in a promising position.

The question is how promising is this position and how realistic is it to see the Mariners return to the playoffs after finishing one agonizing game back in each of the past two seasons? Well, beginning with their division the M's are just 2.0 games back of the Houston Astros at the AL West summit, with 40.9 percent odds of winning it according to FanGraphs.

As for the wild card situation, the Mariners hold the third and final place in the AL, sitting 3.0 games behind the New York Yankees in top spot and 2.5 games back of the Boston Red Sox in second. As for the chasing pack, their divisional rivals the Texas Rangers are 2.5 games behind them, the Kansas City Royals are 3.0 games back and the Guardians are now within 4.0 games following the Mariners' weekend series loss in Cleveland. The Mariners have odds of 45.7 percent to clinch a wild card spot.

Overall, things looking extremely promising with them given a 86.6 percent chance of making the playoffs and with a 7.0 percent chance to clinch a precious bye.

A look at the Mariners' tie-breakers

Tiebreakers will be crucial to the Mariners' chances of qualifying, especially if last season is any indicator. Even though they technically only finished one game back of the AL wild card spots, the reality is they were really two back due to the Royals and Tigers having both won their head-to-head season series versus the M's.

This time around, the Mariners actually have the tie-break advantage over the Tigers — helped significantly by their dominating sweep in Detroit before the All-Star break — along with the Rangers and Guardians. On the flip side they don't hold the tie-breakers against the Yankees, Red Sox (for now), or Toronto Blue Jays.

Where it really becomes interesting is the two teams the Mariners still have to decide their tie-breakers against, in the Royals and the Astros. And this interest comes from the M's having to face both teams in their final six-game road trip of this season, between Sep.16-21.

The Mariners and Royals have already played four games in Seattle, with the two teams splitting the series 2-2. Fans will be keeping an eye on what happens to the 3.0-game advantage the M's currently have, between now and when the teams meet in Kansas City.

AL West division title is still up for grabs

As for the Astros, that three-game set in Houston has the promise of so much, with the two teams tied 5-5 in the head-to-head season series. There may never be a better chance for the Mariners to win their first division title since 2001 and claim the perks which come with it, including homefield advantage in their first playoff series at least, as well as the possibility of a bye.

There's no denying the Mariners have been much better at home this season compared to on the road, at 41-27 and 32-37 respectively. However, no matter where the games are being played, it has to count for something positive that the remaining strength of schedule for the M's opponents is .494.

The Mariners are fortunate that they finish the season in Seattle, with a six-game homestand against the Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers. The Rockies are truly horrendous, while the M's will hope the Dodgers' playoff position has already been determined and they will take their foot off the pedal.

Overall, you should be optimistic of where the Mariners stand if you're a fan, while also acknowledging this is a franchise that has a history of ruining seemingly good situations. Ultimately, though, this is a very talented roster which has what is needed to take advantage in a wide-open AL.