Everyone is learning what Mariners fans already knew about Cal Raleigh's AL MVP case

With Cal Raleigh reaching the 50-home run milestone, the rest of the MLB is suddenly waking up to his MVP case.

Mariners fans have known it all along: Cal Raleigh is a budding superstar in this league. His 50 home runs lead the rest of the MLB, and he has an outside chance of belting 60 longballs this year. His 107 RBIs rank third, his 77 walks rank 11th, and his .587 slugging ranks third, as does his .956 OPS.

Cal Raleigh's AL MVP case is becoming undeniable

Perhaps most importantly, he's nearly caught Aaron Judge in fWAR, perhaps the stat that matters most for MVP voters. Raleigh has been worth 7.3 fWAR in 2025, just 0.2 wins behind Aaron Judge, who is sitting at 7.5 fWAR.

If voters prefer bWAR, the case might already be closed. Raleigh has just 5.6 bWAR, well behind Judge, at 7.1. However, MLB.com does not think so. Their writers recently gave Raleigh the edge in their latest MVP poll.

"After sitting a distant second behind Aaron Judge in the past few voting cycles, Raleigh has rocketed into the top spot with room to spare," writes Jason Foster for MLB.com.

It's still close. Raleigh earned 22 first-place votes, while Judge earned the other 15 first-place votes. That probably means the MVP race will come down to the final month of the season. If Raleigh can reach the magic number of 60 home runs, the MVP award is probably his to lose. If Judge gets hot again, he can easily steal it back.

The Mariners can help Raleigh's case if they catch Houston and win the AL West, but the best thing Raleigh can do for himself is keep hitting home runs. Stealing six more bases, and securing his first 20-20 season, would not hurt his case either, but it is Raleigh's power that has helped him win over fans of other teams.

ESPN insider Jeff Passan admited that there might be bias after Raleigh's 50th blast, but said he thinks Raleigh would win the award if voting was held today.

“I do think if the vote were taken today, he would win. But we are also coming off his 50th home run," said Passan.

It might come down to the wire, but the good news is Raleigh's MVP case is real, and it is gaining momentum.