How Mariners' Cal Raleigh can pull off historic AL MVP upset over Yankees' Aaron Judge

As the 2025 season barrels toward the All-Star break, Cal Raleigh is not just the heart of the Seattle Mariners’ lineup. He's also making a legitimate case to pull off one of the most stunning MVP upsets in recent memory.

While New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge is putting up historic numbers and flirting with a .400 average, there’s reason to believe that Raleigh’s unique combination of power, defense, and clutch performance could give him a serious shot, especially if circumstances break his way.

Cal Raleigh vs. Aaron Judge headline American League MVP race

At the plate, Raleigh is on a jaw-dropping pace. With 23 home runs through the first two months putting him about a 54-55 home run pace, he’s positioned to obliterate Salvador Perez’s single season record of 48 home runs by a catcher.

No other backstop in MLB history has combined raw power and everyday workload behind the plate quite like Raleigh has done in his career. He missed just 26 games over 2023 and 2024 and has not yet had a full day off this year. His ability to sustain his power output while catching nearly every day is unheard of in the modern game.

But Raleigh isn’t just a bat-first catcher. He might be the best defensive player in all of baseball (and is without a doubt the best catcher in the game) regardless of position. He is one of the best in the league at framing and handles one of the best pitching staffs in the league, giving him a two-way profile few MVP contenders can match.

Then there’s his clutch gene. Raleigh leads MLB catchers with 12 go-ahead hits and has added two game-tying ones as well, frequently delivering in the highest leverage moments. He’s become the emotional and statistical engine of a Mariners team in the thick of a tight AL West race.

For Raleigh to seriously challenge Judge, he’ll need to maintain this blistering pace and Seattle will likely need to win the division. Voters typically reward MVPs from playoff teams (apparently the East Coast bias is very real, according to an MLB.com poll) and a division title over the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers would provide a compelling argument.

As remarkable as he is, Judge is 33 and defying aging curves that typically slow down power-hitting outfielders. A .400 average is historically unsustainable (it hasn't happened in 84 years), and any regression paired with a Yankees stumble in the AL East could open the door wide for Raleigh.

It’s a long shot. But if Raleigh keeps smashing homers, commanding games behind the plate, and leading the Mariners to October, we could be looking at the first Mariner to win an MVP award since Ichiro did it in 2001.