Emerson Hancock's 2026 Mariners breakout inspires as much concern as excitement

As disastrous as this season was for the Mariners, there were still some positives to come from it. Among other things, Dominic Canzone and Cole Young both establishing themselves as regulars in the lineup. You can make a similar claim about Emerson Hancock, but the difference compared to Canzone and Young is that he has more to prove.

Let's be clear in stating this is not about wanting to poke holes in Hancock. It was gratifying to see him finally show more of the talent which persuaded the Mariners to draft him in the first place, with the sixth overall pick in 2020. However, we're sure he'll be the first to admit he needs to continue working on his game, to establish himself as a long-term and reliable member of the rotation.

At least this represents a different kind of conversation compared to the previous offseason, when the thinking was that Hancock's future might be in the bullpen. He did start an at-the-time career-high 16 games in 2025, but produced a 5.20 ERA compared to a 2.08 ERA during six relief outings in September. Ultimately though, the decision was made to move him back into the rotation to start this season, and he's now at an interesting point in his career.

In this respect there's absolutely reason for encouragement, as Emerson led the rotation with a career-best 3.57 ERA after allowing three runs or fewer in 21 of his 25 starts. He also finished second among M's starters with a 2.7 bWAR, which would have projected to be the best in the rotation if he had pitched a full season. That he didn't have the opportunity to do so was due to a left abductor strain that sent him to the Injured List at the end of August.

Balancing what Emerson Hancock did well versus the potential for things to go south

While a 22.2 K% doesn't exactly jump off the page, it still represents the first time above the 20.0 percent threshold in four Major League seasons for Hancock. This coincided with dropping his arm angle and release point to 5.02 feet and upping his velocity to another career-best of 95.4 mph. Further, his Fastball Run Value ranked in the 98th percentile.

Not a lot jumps out when you look at the 27-year-old's Baseball Savant page, save for ranking in the 91st percentile for his BB%. What is noticeable though, is that his expected ERA, BA, wOBA and SLG were all higher than his actual results. Now add in that he went pretty far on a four-seam fastball that FanGraphs didn't rate very well at a Stuff+ of 92, and you have to wonder if regression is coming.

Going back to our earlier statement, this is not about wanting to poke holes in Hancock, even though this is in part what we've done. There will also likely be those out there, who contend we would be better-served focusing on the likes of George Kirby and Bryce Miller. And certainly, they did both struggle at times this season, while also being less consistent than Hancock.

However, the reality is that Kirby and Miller each have a better track-record up to this point, particularly Kirby. Now if Hancock can replicate his 2026 form next year, or even improve on it, then confidence will really start to grow in him and at the same time quiet the talk of trading him. Until then, it's a case of balancing excitement with concern as to what's to come next with the righty.

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