Early 2027 Mariners projections boost Kade Anderson's Rookie of the Year chances

Some of the lustre came off the Mariners' rotation this past season and yet it's telling that they still finished 10th in the majors in team ERA. The combination of talent, past success and metrics project the starters to collectively bounce back in 2027 (whenever the season begins), which bodes well for the team's chances of success as a whole. And on the subject of projections, it's telling that Kade Anderson stands out as arguably the key member of the rotation's future endeavors.

Upon delving into the Steamer projections for 2027, it's intriguing that Anderson is tabbed to make 24 starts for the Mariners and produce a 3.28 ERA. This alludes to the confidence in his abilities and is noteable in that he's projected to have a better ERA that teammates Logan Gilbert (3.44), Bryan Woo (3.52) and George Kirby (3.71). That's right, better than three established starters who all have All-Star selections on their resume.

It's similarly notable that Anderson's 3.28 ERA projection has him in the same neighborhood as Paul Skenes (3.29) and Shohei Ohtani (3.31). Last time we checked, Skenes and Ohtani were pretty damn good, even allowing for their respective challenges with adversity in 2026. However, there's also genuine hope of deepening the connection between Anderson and the duo, with the possibility of him joining them as Rookie of the Year winners.

Ohtani won the AL award in 2018, while Skenes claimed the NL equivalent just two years ago, and there's every reason for confidence in Anderson's ability to replicate the former's success specifically. Anderson will retain his rookie status for 2027, on account of not exceeding 45 days of active service in the majors this year. Sure, Ohtani and Skenes might have won their respective rookie awards in their actual first year of Major League action, but the rules are the rules and ultimately, no one's really going to care or gripe about this if Anderson does win.

Kade Anderson is a special pitcher who's only going to improve for the Mariners

The reality is that Anderson is one special player, who has already taken impressive strides in working his way towards becoming a future staff ace. His 2026 campaign in Arkansas was described as one for the ages, as he easily tore through Double-A lineups as if they were soggy pieces of paper. He led all minor league pitchers with a 1.06 ERA and 0.643 WHIP. It was no surprise when he was named MILB Pitcher of the Year.

As a result, the anticipation and excitement was palpable when Anderson was finally called up to the Mariners on August 22. And while there were some understandable teething problems, he showed more than enough in seven starts to suggest he has a long and bright future in the majors. Exhibit A of this was going 7.0 scoreless innings and allowing only three hits in the high altitude of Denver, Colorado, versus a Rockies team which ranked fifth in the majors in team OPS.

To be clear, Anderson does have things to work on, including needing to improve versus left-handed bats specifically and increasing his velocity. At the same time, the focus is on these being areas to develop as opposed to any reason for specific concern. The velocity in particular only stands to need a slight uptick, thanks to his command and ability with four pitches which are all considered above average -- an invaluable commodity in today's game.

The Mariners are actually in an exciting position, with Lazaro Montes and Michael Arroyo also being eligible as Rookie of the Year candidates. And certainly they offer some intriguing potential, with Montes' almost violent power and Arroyo's ability to consistently make contact with the ball. However, Anderson stands out as the most likely to contend for and win the AL Rookie award in 2027, which would by extension help the M's chances of bouncing back from a disappointing 2026 campaign.

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