Crafting a new Mariners-Padres Mason Miller trade after George Kirby, Yankees rumors

It was always going to be hard for the Seattle Mariners to convince the San Diego Padres to part with Mason Miller. And now, they'll have to fend off the New York Yankees and somehow keep George Kirby.

This is the gist of multiple new reports, starting with one from MLB.com's Daniel Kramer on how the Mariners plan to handle their starting pitching surplus on the trade market. It's nothing new that Luis Castillio and Emerson Hancock are available. It is something new that the Mariners "do not intend" to trade Kirby, much less Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo or Bryce Miller.

If so, that nixes our first attempt at crafting a fair trade between Seattle and San Diego with Miller at its center. In fact, Miguel Andujar was also in that one, and he has since gone on the injured list.

Meanwhile, the Yankees look like they could be the team to beat for Miller, with Bob Nightengale of USA Today reporting that they "crave" the 27-year-old righty. In what might be a related story, there have also been whispers that they're willing to dangle outfielders Jasson Domínguez and Spencer Jones as trade chips.

How Mariners can base a Mason Miller trade around Emerson Hancock instead of George Kirby

On the plus side, Kramer's report reinforces that the Mariners are on the hunt for a reliever, and specifically "one who's proven and who can miss bats." With his two All-Star nods, triple-digit fastball and 48.2 K%, Miller matches that description.

Another plus is that the Mariners have what the Padres need even if their core starters are off the table. Various reports suggest they'll need a controllable starter and multiple top-100 prospects for Miller. Hancock is 27 and under club control through 2030, and Seattle's farm system has six prospects in MLB Pipeline's top 100.

Thus we propose:

Baseball Trade Values rates this as an overpay by the Mariners, who would be sending $84.4 million surplus value to the Padres in exchange for $70.7 million in surplus value. But that's kind of the point.

With the August 3 trade deadline still a week away, it's already shaping up to be a seller's market. The Padres are in an ideal position to make it even more so with Miller. They're within 2.0 games of a playoff spot following a sweep of the Marlins in Miami. Moreover, Miller is under club control for two more seasons after 2026.

Regardless, it's a "look on the bright side" proposal for both clubs.

The Mariners would get the best reliever in baseball and reunite with an old friend in Ty France, who has a 142 OPS+ from the right side of the plate. The Padres would get the controllable starter they seek, plus three of Seattle's eight best prospects. Lazaro Montes and Jonny Farmelo are also considered top-100 types, though the Mariners have reasons to consider each of them as expendable.

This Mariners package beats whatever the Yankees can offer the Padres for Mason Miller

As for the Yankees, it doesn't take much to understand why they would want Miller in their bullpen. But if the question is whether the Yankees can win a bidding war against the Mariners for Miller, the answer should be "no."

ESPN's Buster Olney pitched a package centered on Will Warren. He's Hancock's equal in terms of age and controllability, but Warren has been a dud (-0.1 rWAR) this year while Hancock has been a stud (2.4 rWAR). And while Domínguez and Jones both have MLB experience and ample name value, the two of them together only have as much surplus value as Montes has on his own, per Baseball Trade Values.

The Yankees otherwise have four prospects in MLB Pipeline's top 100, yet the true figure might as well be two. George Lombard Jr. seems to be nearing his New York debut at shortstop, while Carlos Lagrange is currently shut down with a shoulder injury.

Given that the Yankees are in possession of a playoff spot and the Mariners are not, one can imagine the former being more willing to push the envelope. But if that's the case, the Mariners will have only themselves to blame if Miller ends up in New York and not Seattle.

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