Charting Mariners' unlikely path to AL playoff picture after cathartic Red Sox series

If you want to be a Debbie Downer, you can note that the Seattle Mariners should have swept all three games from the Boston Red Sox to begin this week. It's true, but a series win is a series win, and this one means the Mariners have a heartbeat again in the American League playoff picture.

It's faint, of course. The Mariners are eight games under .500 with 22 left to play, and they're up against hefty deficits. They're 5.0 games behind the Houston Astros in the AL West, and 4.5 games behind the Cleveland Guardians for the third AL wild card.

The advantage the Mariners have is the easiest remaining schedule of any team in MLB. And Thursday is when the really easy stuff kicks in. Four games against the Athletics at home mark the first four of 17 games left against them, the Los Angeles Angels and Colorado Rockies. These are the three worst teams in MLB.

What the Mariners must aim for, and how they can get there with the games they have left

The Mariners need to go 15-7 in their last 22 games just to salvage a .500 record. That could be good enough for a playoff spot, especially if it means getting in via the AL West title. If the Mariners and Astros finish with the same record, the Mariners would own the tiebreaker courtesy of a head-to-head record that stands at 9-2.

Yet since Houston (71-69) and Cleveland (70-69) are both tracking toward 82 wins, that should be Seattle's minimum final goal. To play it even more safe, the bar should be set at 83 wins.

That would require going 17-5 in their last 22 games. They have not won more than 14 games in any 22-game span this year.

The last time we charted out the remainder of Seattle's schedule, the aim was for 81-81 and we had them getting there even after going 3-6 in their recent stretch against the Philadelphia Phillies, Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox. They actually went 4-5 in this stretch, which helps!

Now, something like this gets it done:

Seven straight series wins to finish the year? It's a tall order, but doable under the circumstances. And even if the Mariners drop one or two series, a sweep in one or two other series would erase the damage.

For what it's worth, the only one of these five remaining opponents with a winning record in the second half is the Astros, who are 24-18 since the break. The other four are spiraling, with the A's, Angels and Rockies somehow winning games at an even slower clip than they did in the first half.

The Mariners can do what they must if they carry momentum out of Boston, though it's understood if the very notion is triggering. Having to play in Seattle a day after playing in Boston is a tough schedule. Beyond that, momentum has been a foreign concept to this Mariners team all year.

Either way, here we all are staring down the barrel. If the Mariners are ever going to become the winner they were meant to be, it needs to happen now.

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