Predicting the rest of the Mariners' 2026 schedule to find a realistic playoff path

As the Seattle Mariners continue to fight for their playoff lives, the only silver lining remains that it's a winnable fight. If this was a boxing match, the opponent would basically be a bundle of wet paper bags with his trunks pulled over his head. Even so, there's the question of how exactly the Mariners are supposed to salvage their season with 31 games left.

FanGraphs only gives them a 34.6 percent chance of making the postseason. That's down from a peak of 88.8 percent since June 8, around when they reached a pinnacle with a 36-32 record. Since then, they have gone 26-37 to fall seven games under .500 at 62-69.

And yet, they remain just 3.0 games off the pace for both the AL West lead and the AL's third wild card spot. They're chasing the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers, respectively, both of whom are a game under .500.

As such, the Mariners can hope to salvage their season simply by salvaging a .500 record. For this, they only need to win 19 of their last 31 games.

How the Mariners can stumble out of August and still make the playoffs by owning September

The problem the Mariners face right now is that they're still in the thick of a difficult schedule for the month of August. They have played nothing but playoff contenders, and there are still series with the Philadelphia Phillies, Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox up next.

Those three teams are headed in the opposite direction from the Mariners, who have generally been getting messages that they don't belong in the playoff race. Frankly, we'll be surprised if Seattle can win any of those three series.

Thankfully, what awaits the Mariners in September is why they have the easiest remaining schedule of any team in MLB. Even if they drop their next three series, they still have the following path to a 19-12 finish:

See? The Mariners can lose six of their next nine and still get to 81-81 at the end. They would just need to win all seven of the series they'll play in September.

Perhaps it sounds outlandish, but the above hardly represents the only scenario in which the Mariners ultimately save face. They could win at least one of their series against Philadelphia, Toronto and Boston, in which case they could afford to drop at least one series in September. And besides, more than one sweep in any of those last seven series should be possible.

The Angels (52-79), A's (51-80) and Rockies (50-80) have the three worst records in baseball. The Mariners already have 4-2 records against each of the first two clubs. The Rockies are normally better at Coors Field than they are on the road, but that hasn't been the case lately. They can't buy a win in Denver.

The Astros and Rangers are nominally the biggest threats the Mariners will face in September, but it's all relative. The Astros have already dropped nine of 11 to Seattle, and they seem ready to punt on the season in general. The Rangers have been more of a problem for the Mariners, taking seven of 10 head-to-head matchups. Their offense has gone so cold, though, that even the Mariners have out-homered and outscored them in August.

There are still cards for the Mariners to put on the table after calling up Kade Anderson. J.P. Crawford and Matt Brash should soon be activated off the injured list. Lazaro Montes and/or Michael Arroyo could get the call when rosters expand in September. And if ever Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez are going to wake up, now's the time.

Frankly, the amount of hope the Mariners still have after 131 games of frustration is almost annoying. Either way, the only thing that matters is whether it'll all be worth it. They know where they need to get. They just need to get there.

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