Astros' mission for Mariners revenge already has a Josh Hader problem

Entering last season, there was no denying the Houston Astros were Kings of the AL West, with seven division titles in eight years. (Along with two World Series championships in four appearances over the same time period.) However, there was still plenty of encouragement for the Seattle Mariners.

The Mariners were one of just two teams in the AL with at least 85 wins between 2021-24 along with the Astros, while the M's had won the head-to-head season series over their main division rivals in 2023 and 2024. The stage was set and Seattle finally broke through in 2025 with their first AL West title since 2001, winning their third consecutive season series versus Houston along the way.

Now, following an offseason which saw Josh Naylor sign a five-year deal as well as trades for Jose A. Ferrer and Brendan Donovan, the Mariners are projected as favorites to win a second consecutive division title. These are heady times in Seattle, and yet the Astros are lying in wait, ready to reclaim the AL West which they firmly believe is still theirs by default.

Houston, we have a problem

Certainly the Mariners would never be naive enough to overlook the threat of the Astros, and yet there's news coming out of Houston which will likely be perceived positively in the Pacific Northwest. As ESPN's Buster Olney was first in reporting, it involves six-time All-Star reliever Josh Hader:

"Hader has been playing catch on flat ground, throwing lightly, according to Houston general manager Dana Brown. But Hader has not been throwing full bullpens in the manner that many pitchers are in early February. Veteran pitchers often shape their training programs in a way to preserve themselves for the regular season, and Hader is still in the process of assessing when he can ramp up his work."

Buster Olney

Chandler Rome of The Athletic followed up on Tuesday with clarification on the situation. Per Astros manager Joe Espada, the star lefty has inflammation in his biceps and his status for Opening Day is "in flux" as a result:

Hader suffered a season-ending capsule sprain in his left shoulder last August, but was expected to be fully healthy for the start of the 2026 campaign. Back in late November, as reported by Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle, the three-time NL Reliever of the Year had himself claimed he was already back to normal following his season-ending shoulder injury.

Josh Hader's absence would be the Mariners' gain

You have to imagine Astros fans are freaked out right now, given just how much Hader means to the team as one of the best relievers in all of baseball. The southpaw has a career 2.64 ERA, 2.89 FIP and 0.937 WHIP and was electric last year in Houston, as evidenced by his Baseball Savant page which included rankings in the 100th percentile for xERA and xBA as well as in the 99th percentile for a trio of other categories.

The Astros were among the best bullpen's in baseball last season, helped significantly by Hader as they ranked eighth in the majors in team ERA, second in WHIP and batting average, as well as third in strikeouts. However, if he isn't available for Opening Day this year, then the dynamic changes dramatically.

Sure, the Astros do still have the likes of Bryan Abreu and Bryan King, but overall the bullpen just isn't much to write home about, comparing unfavorably to the Mariners who themselves struggled at times for quality relieving depth last year. To be clear, you don't wish harm on anyone, but a non-speedy recovery for Hader sure would be advantageous for the M's.