Actually, the Mariners are better than a mid-range World Series contender

It wasn't the best of offseasons for the Seattle Mariners, who needed to strengthen their lineup after finishing just one game back of a wild card spot in 2024. However, with only a reported $15 million budget for new players, the only major moves were a reunion with Jorge Polanco and a deal with 37-year-old Donovan Solano.

The mood of Mariners fans was captured by a member of last year's team, as Justin Turner had some harsh words to share earlier this week. It was an indictment of the organization, reinforced by Turner agreeing to less money that what the M's were reportedly offering, to instead join the Chicago Cubs.

With all of this in mind, it probably shouldn't come as a surprise that MLB.com has essentially given the Mariners a middle-of-the pack ranking for their chances of winning the World Series in 2025. Not that Will Leitch doesn't have some positive words to say about the team, but being placed as only the No. 14 favorite to win it all isn't a glowing endorsement.

Yet are the Mariners really that average when it comes to their chances of claiming their first championship? Or have the negative events of recent weeks clouded the thinking?

Well, in this respect, we would contend that this is a more talented and stronger contender than they are being given credit for.

Plenty to be optimistic about with the Mariners

As much as missing out on the playoffs by just one game in each of the two past seasons is tough, this is still a Mariners team which has the eight-best record in the 2020s so far. They are also one of just five teams to win 85-plus games in each of the past four seasons, with the Houston Astros being the only other American League team to achieve this feat.

In respect to the actual roster, let's get the obvious positive out of the way immediately: the Mariners have arguably the best rotation in all of baseball. They were the only team of 2024 to have four starters with 30-plus starts, and the rotation ranked first in MLB in innings pitched, quality starts, ERA, WHIP, opposing team batting average and walks allowed.

While the bullpen was running on fumes by the end of the season, it was still an excellent unit , ranking ninth in ERA, fourth in WHIP, and second in opposing team batting average and fewest walks. Throw in the return of Matt Brash as well as how Gregory Santos is expected to contribute more, and the bullpen is primed to be even better in 2025.

The Mariners are set at catcher, with Cal Raleigh having a case as the best in the game at his position. Similarly, the combination of Julio Rodríguez, Randy Arozarena and Víctor Robles have an opportunity to claim the title of best outfield in the Majors.

Can the infield do its bit to lift the Mariners?

The key will be whether an underwhelming infield can help keep the Mariners in contention. Along these lines, the likes of Polanco and J.P. Crawford will be counted on to rediscover their previous form following career-worst offensive seasons in 2024.

It does also have to be reiterated that the Mariners offense experienced a rejuvenation in 2024 under Dan Wilson after he replaced Scott Servais as manager. They ranked in the top five in a whole host of offensive statistics for September, including scoring the third-most runs in the Majors.

Given all these positives, we would state that FanGraphs has a more accurate grasp of the potential of this Mariners team. For a start, the site gives the M's the second-best odds of winning the AL West in 2025, behind the Texas Rangers.

In terms of just making the playoffs, FanGraphs gives the Mariners the eight-best odds in the Majors as a whole, and third-best for the American League specifically. And finally, the site gives the Mariners the seventh-best odds to win that first ever World Series.

Yes, games are won on the field as opposed to on a piece of paper or some computer. However, we do objectively believe that FanGraphs has a better handle on the 2025 Mariners compared to MLB.com, as the team takes aim at just its second playoff appearance since 2001.

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