Aaron Judge's injury throws out the script for Yankees vs Mariners AL MVP rematch

And like that, the Seattle vs. New York AL MVP grudge match between Cal Raleigh and Aaron Judge has gone "poof." It wasn't even that fun while it lasted, as neither came anywhere close to his historic form of 2025 before landing on the injured list.

The big question now is what, if anything, the Yankees will get from Judge for the rest of 2026.

His official diagnosis is a rib stress fracture that could keep him sidelined until August. According to Chris Kirschner of The Athletic, it's "still unknown" if Judge is dealing with thoracic outlet syndrome, a condition that typically requires season-ending surgery.

The Mariners, meanwhile, stand to get Raleigh back from a strained oblique sometime in the next few weeks. But while this is undeniably a hopeful premise, it's not a cause to gloat. That's in bad taste even when an ostensible rival like Judge is hurt. And besides, Raleigh's .161 average should serve as a reminder that his 60-homer self is a memory until proven otherwise.

The basic reality of the Raleigh vs. Judge thing right now is kind of a drag. No matter which side you came down on in 2025 — take a wild guess who we preferred for AL MVP — it was the first MVP race in a while where there genuinely wasn't a clear pick. To go from that to both effectively falling off the MVP radar in 2026 is not what anyone wanted.

The Mariners vs. Yankees AL MVP contest now passes to 2 new contestants

But then, just because it's not Raleigh vs. Judge doesn't mean we can't have another Mariners vs. Yankees AL MVP showdown. Ben Rice was garnering support in the AL MVP race even before Judge was taken out of the equation. Meanwhile in Seattle, Julio Rodríguez is making an earlier-than-usual push back into superstardom.

At least for now, the statistics overwhelmingly favor Rice. The third-year Yankee is batting .300/.393/.683 with 17 home runs and 2.3 rWAR, whereas Julio lags behind a .256/.312/.461 with 13 homers and 1.6 rWAR.

However, Julio offers a greater promise for helium as the year goes along. His center field defense is bound to round back into Gold Glove-caliber form. And after going off for a 156 wRC+ and 10 homers in May, he's already achieved a level of offensive hotness that he usually saves for the second half. That history alone explains three top-10 finishes in the AL MVP voting.

Granted, you can close your eyes and see people in Houston and Kansas City pointing emphatically to Yordan Alvarez and Bobby Witt Jr., respectively. And yeah, the point is well taken.

But in the absence of Raleigh vs. Judge, Rodríguez vs. Rice does have a nice ring to it. And since the Mariners and Yankees are two of only five AL teams with winning records, it's not like what the two of them are doing on an individual level is going to be irrelevant in the AL playoff picture. That tends to matter to MVP voters.

And yes, that is shade directed at the Houston Astros and Kansas City Royals. They have 53 wins and 74 losses between them, which feels like an awful waste of what Alvarez and Witt are doing.

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