4 Mariners red flags fans must be aware of heading into 2025 season

For some, it feels like a lifetime since last season finished, while others can't believe how quickly the offseason has flown by. In any event, spring training is here and thoughts turn to the Seattle Mariners' preparations for the 2025 campaign.

As is to be expected, there's plenty for the Mariners to wonder about, with numerous outstanding questions which need answering to find out if they can return to the playoffs after two consecutive heartbreaks. M's fans are always dialed in, and they need to stay on top of these developments in the coming months.

4 Mariners red flags fans must be aware of heading into 2025 season

Over-reliance on Cal Raleigh behind the plate

There's a genuine case to be made that Cal Raleigh is the best catcher in the Majors, both behind and at the plate. No matter whatever East Coast bias there may be, both real or perceived, it's becoming harder for media and fans alike to dismiss what he's achieved during his four years in the big leagues.

Offensively speaking, last year saw Raleigh lead all catchers with 34 home runs while finishing second with 100 RBI — both stats representing new personal single-season highs. For the home runs in particular, this also had historical connotations.

First up, the 28-year-old became the first catcher to lead his position in homers for three straight years since Mike Piazza from 1999-2002. Even more special though, the Mariners' (reluctant) star also surpassed Piazza for the most home runs by a catcher in their first four Major League seasons with 93.

Behind the plate, Raleigh was equally impressive, as he led all catchers with 1,122 innings caught and 26 runners thrown out. In the AL, he led all catchers with 13 framing runs and was second with 17 Defensive Runs Saved, as he went on to win both the Gold Glove and Platinum Glove awards.

The reason for mentioning all this is that there's a genuine concern the Mariners are relying too much on the 2018 third-round draft pick. On a similar note, he is tied for second in games played by a catcher these past two seasons with 298, behind Adley Rutschman with 302.

Of course, part of the issue with this is who the Mariners had as the backup catcher last year, with Mitch Garver struggling to do much of anything. If he can return to anywhere even close to his career .784 OPS in 2025, it would really help the Mariners significantly with giving Raleigh some rest.

We can certainly appreciate the Mariners wanting to use Raleigh as much as they do with his value highlighted by being first among all AL catchers last season in both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs WAR. However, the team quite simply cannot keep relying on him so much, otherwise they risk him breaking down, at which point they'll really be in trouble.

Too much emphasis on hope as a Mariners philosophy

In one respect, positivity is the way to go when it comes to most areas of life, with it often putting you in a better position to manifest success, whether it be personally and/or professionally. On the other hand however, they often say that hope can be a dangerous thing to have.

Both of these outlooks came to mind during Jerry Dipoto's zoom conference call with the media last Monday to discuss the team heading into spring training in Peoria. In particular, he attempted to defend the lineup, which struggled last season. He claimed not much needed to be done to improve and support the group.

First of all, there's the general hope that the lineup will be more like the one that performed so well once Dan Wilson took over as manager and brought in Edgar Martinez as his hitting coach. They were top five in a number of offensive categories during the final month of the season.

This is a dangerous thing to pin your hopes on when you consider that it's about what a team does over the course of an entire season as opposed to a specified period of time. This is still essentially the same roster — and keep in mind one which won't have Justin Turner in it — that for the 2024 campaign as a whole had the most strikeouts, second-worst batting average, and ranked just 21st in scoring.

Now, we do want to believe that Wilson and Martinez have found a solution to help the players hit better in the cavernous T-Mobile Park, but keep in mind this also requires a lot of things to go right. In this respect, Dipoto is counting on a lot of individuals to come through after discouraging individual performances last season.

At the top of the list and almost serving as the poster boy for a frustrating offseason for Mariners fans is the recently re-signed Jorge Polanco, who had the worst season of his time in the Majors, highlighted by career-lows of a .213 batting average and .651 OPS. Dipoto and Co. are hoping the combination of offseason surgery to repair his left knee.

Then there's the hope that J.P. Crawford will look more like his 2023 version than the one from last season who, similar to Polanco, had the worst offensive campaign of his eight years in the Majors. In relation to Polanco and Crawford, there's the overall need for the infield to overcome not signing the likes of Pete Alonso or Alex Bregman, and instead keeping their fingers crossed that the mixture of a platoon system and minor upgrades will suffice.

In the outfield, there's looking at Randy Arozarena to try and keep engaged for an entire season and for Víctor Robles to carry on where he left off last year. And last, but certainly not least, Julio Rodríguez needs to look more like he did in the second half of the season than the first. He must maintain superstar production.

Overall, Dipoto, the rest of the front office and ownership are relying on what they have in-house to resolve the offensive issues and have a lineup which will (at least) adequately support their superior pitching staff. However, be warned, as a little hope can go a long way, but too much can kill you.

Mariners' starting pitching on the road

There's no denying that the Mariners have one of the best starting rotations in all of baseball. This much is clear after they led the Majors last season in team ERA, WHIP, walks allowed, and opposing team batting average.

Such is the strength of this Mariners rotation that you have a case where Luis Castillo, who is good enough to be the ace on a lot of teams, actually had the least effective campaign of the preferred starting five in 2024. Additionally, Bryan Woo might be at the back end of the rotation, but he actually led the fab five in win-loss percentage and ERA, while he was second in WHIP and second in strikeouts-to-walks ratio (literally only 0.01 behind George Kirby).

Despite this, however, there is some concern about the starting rotation, and not just because the odds are against them being as healthy in 2025 as last year (the Mariners were the only team in 2024 to have four pitchers with 30+ plus starts). There's some concern due to the disparity between the rotation's individual ERAs on the road compared to at home in the pitcher-friendly confines of T-Mobile Park.

It begins at the top with Logan Gilbert, who led all qualified starters with 208 2/3 innings and a phenomenal 0.887 WHIP last season. However, his 2.49 ERA at home was countered by a 3.94 ERA on the road, with the latter contributing to a 4-7 record on his travels — although we will add that he was 9-12 overall in 33 starts, which alludes to the ineffectiveness of the lineup.

The disparity isn't quite as significant with George Kirby, with a 3.06 ERA at home and a 3.89 ERA on the road. But it's particularly noteworthy when you turn to Castillo, who had a 3.15 ERA in Seattle and a 4.25 ERA on his travels, which doubles as his worst road ERA in his three seasons with the Mariners.

However, the most significant difference came from Bryce Miller last year, with an excellent 1.96 ERA at home but a 4.07 ERA away from T-Mobile Park. Finally we come to Woo, who just edged Kirby for the smallest difference, with a 2.47 ERA in Seattle and 3.29 ERA on the road.

Now, to be clear, we understand ERA on its own cannot be held purely against a pitcher with so many other factors in play and out of their control. Still, it's something we will need to be kept an eye on this coming season, especially for a team that went 36-45 on the road in 2024, which represented the Mariners' first losing record away from home in a full season since 2019.

Ongoing lack of funds to improve Mariners roster

Okay, this final red flag is a bit of a different one, in so much that it's been evident for a while now. Previously, Dipoto had indicated the Mariners were going to contribute significant financial funds to improve the team once the rebuild was over and they were ready to contend.

In fairness, this was the case to begin with, as the Mariners forked over the big bucks to get Robbie Ray signed prior to the 2022 regular season. They also extended Rodriguez and Castillo at the time. When the team finally ended their extensive playoff drought that very same season, the stage seemed set to continue spending and set the M's up for a genuine and sustained run at a first ever World Series appearance.

Instead, the front office changed its approach and brought in underwhelming and/or inexpensive players ahead of the 2023 season, such as likes of AJ Pollock and Kolten Wong. This new approach manifested itself in other ways in the buildup to the following campaign, with the Mariners offloading the likes of Ray and his huge contract, Eugenio Suarez, Marco Gonzales and Jarred Kelenic.

There were clearly factors at play here, such as the uncertainty over the long-term future of ROOT Sports, which the Mariners took full control of at the beginning of 2024. With one of the organization's primary revenue streams struggling, this further impacted how much ownership was prepared to invest financially in improving the roster.

This frugal approach was at its most evident yet during this past offseason, with the Mariners apparently only having around $15 million of spare payroll to improve the roster. As a result, despite the need for multiple infield upgrades, the front office stayed away from the likes of Bregman and Alonso, with the latter being a particular source of frustration for the fan base after he re-signed with the New York Mets for just two years and $54 million.

Ultimately, this is a red flag which is completely controlled by the Mariners owners, but is unlikely to change anytime soon (though we'll be happy to be proven wrong). As a result, there's a genuine concern the team is going to squander this golden opportunity of elite pitching, which has a championship window only for a couple more seasons.

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