3 Mariners players facing make-or-break year heading into 2026 season

Despite Seattle's success in 2025, it was a better individual year for some than for others. Injuries, statistical regression, and positional limbo limited how much these three players were able to contribute and could affect their futures with the franchise.

3 Mariners players facing make-or-break 2026 seasons

Luke Raley

In 2024, Luke Raley led all qualified Mariners in OPS+ (128). He spent most of his time playing corner outfield but also took reps at first base, serving as an important utility piece in a season rife with lineup holes. Unfortunately, last season brought along regression in every major statistical category, namely his slugging percentage, which decreased from .463 in 2024 to just .311 in 2025. Injuries also held him back as he spent time on the injured list for an oblique strain that he sustained in April and missed more games due to back spasms in late July.

Not only did his performance suffer, he now has considerable competition for playing time as the depth chart has become crowded in the two places he can play. At first base, Josh Naylor will be the clear first option and in the outfield, he doesn't make a particularly compelling case to bump any of the starting trio and arguably has less upside than Dominic Canzone and even Rob Refsnyder.

It seems like the club still has some hope in him, especially since he recently agreed to a $2.05 million contract to avoid arbitration, but if he doesn't turn things around soon, he could be at the top of the list of assets to be traded come deadline time.

Bryce Miller

Miller's story is eerily similar to Raley's. In 2024, he was Seattle's most valuable pitcher by rWAR (3.4) thanks to his stellar 2.94 ERA over 180.1 innings. It seemed like yet another incredible pitching talent was breaking out in Seattle, but last season came with its fair share of obstacles. Recurring elbow inflammation translated to multiple trips to the injured list and a 5.68 ERA over 90.1 innings.

On the bright side, it looks like he won't need to undergo surgery, but he will need to tap back into what made him so effective in the first place. A big point of concern is how his four-seam fastball performed between 2024 and 2025. In 2024, it held batters to a .348 slugging percentage and generated 19 run value (4th in MLB). In 2025, opposing batters slugged .556 against it and it had a run value of -8 (182nd in MLB). It was intrinsically the same pitch but the command suffered, leading to more hard contact. This affected his secondary offerings negatively, making every pitch in his arsenal average or worse.

While the Mariners have stated that they have no intention to trade any of their big league starters, their faith in Miller already seems unsteady as he is the only player on the team to be heading to arbitration over a relatively meager amount of $375,000. No matter what the final agreed upon salary is, it's clear there's a misalignment in player value and it's up to Miller to prove that he's worth every cent.

Víctor Robles

The career of Robles has been full of ups and downs. He was one of the top overall prospects in the sport in 2017 and played an integral role on the 2019 World Series team, but his tenure in Washington was otherwise forgettable. Excluding 2019, he accumulated just 2.1 rWAR over six and a half seasons with the Nationals.

He had an outstanding first season in Seattle, subsequently receiving an extension through 2026 with a team option for 2027. He played just 32 games during the regular season last year after sustaining a gruesome shoulder injury in April, then failed to turn things around after coming back in late August and playing in the postseason.

His contract is team-friendly but the financial terms of his current deal may actually work against him. Because his $5.125 million salary for this season is modest by big league standards, Robles can comfortably ride the bench and/or split time with Dominic Canzone, Rob Refsnyder, and Luke Raley if he doesn't prove himself to be the clear starting option. He has just one season to convince the front office to pick up his option in 2027 and potentially keep him around for an even longer haul.