Mariners tell us how they really feel about Bryce Miller with arbitration filing

The Seattle Mariners and Bryce Miller didn’t exactly light a match to the relationship on arbitration exchange day, but they definitely flicked a lighter.

Per multiple reports, Miller filed at $2.625 million for 2026, and the Mariners countered at $2.25 million. That’s a $375K gap, which is small enough to shrug at… until you remember what arbitration is really about: teams choosing principle over peace.

Sure, it’s not a Tarik Skubal situation — that one is a full-on salary canyon, with Skubal reportedly filing at $32 million while the Tigers came in at $19 million. The Miller gap is the kind you can close with a “fine, let’s split it and move on” handshake.

Mariners’ surprisingly cold arbitration stance with Bryce Miller says plenty

Miller was projected around $2.4 million this winter, which would’ve basically been “meet in the middle and keep it clean.” Instead, Seattle’s offer lands $150K below that projection, and now they’re willing to take their chances in a hearing over what amounts to a rounding error in a major league payroll.

If you’re a Mariners fan, you can interpret that a couple ways, and both can be true at once.

First: the team thinks it can win. Arbitration is a weird courtroom sport where comps, counting stats, and narrative matter. Miller’s 2025 regular season line (5.68 ERA in 18 starts) isn’t exactly the kind of thing that wins a vibe-off. He also spent time bouncing on and off the injured list, which didn’t help his traditional “workhorse” case. 

But second: Miller has every reason to feel a little side-eyed here, because the playoffs told a different story. He made three postseason starts, threw 14.1 innings, and posted a 2.51 ERA. And in 2024, he looked like a real rotation pillar (2.94 ERA that season). 

However, the message from Seattle isn’t “we don’t believe in you.” It’s more like: “We believe in you… but we’re still going to run this like a business, and 2025 kind of says you’re still replaceable on paper.”

And that last part is the quiet subtext. The Mariners aren’t exactly shy about their pitching pipeline. Prospects like Kade Anderson, Ryan Sloan, and Jurrangelo Cijntje are on the horizon, and Seattle’s front office has never been sentimental about the back half of the rotation when cheaper options are knocking down the door. 

Still — and this is where we lean slightly toward Miller — this is the kind of fight that feels unnecessary. The Mariners can afford $2.4M. What they’re really buying with the extra $375K isn’t performance. It’s goodwill. And for a pitcher they’ve trusted in big moments, that might be the better bet.