3 damning statistics that explain Mariners' ice-cold start to 2025 season

Even after the Seattle Mariners' defeat of the Houston Astros on Monday night, the team only improved to 4-7 through its first 11 games of the 2025 season.

This is not the start anyone was hoping for. The Mariners arguably began the year as the favorites to win the American League West, after all. But now, FanGraphs now has their chances of doing so down to 24.7 percent from 39.2 percent on Opening Day.

The silver lining, such as it is, is that the Mariners have mostly played competitive baseball. Six of their seven losses have been by three runs or fewer, including all three defeats in San Francisco this past weekend. And for what it's worth, manager Dan Wilson is liking the team's energy level:

Even with these things said, there are legitimate reasons that the Mariners are losing more than they're winning. Here are three statistics that tell the story better than most.

A lack of clutch hits, shaky bullpen work and substandard fill-ins for George Kirby are killing the Mariners

1. A .139 batting average with runners in scoring position

Stop me if you've heard this one before, but the Mariners are struggling to hit. They're batting .208 as a team, with notables like Julio Rodríguez, Randy Arozarena and J.P. Crawford languishing in the .100s with their individual averages.

Yet of the seven teams with lower batting averages than the Mariners, three have managed to outscore Seattle. In a related story, each of the three has a higher average with runners in scoring position.

Indeed, there is not a team with a lower average with runners in scoring position than the Mariners' .139 mark. Five of the team's 10 hits in such situations belong to Jorge Polanco, whereas supposed run producers like J-Rod, Arozarena, Cal Raleigh and Luke Raley are just 1-for-35.

They simply need to be better, and that's all there is to it. While there may come a time to wonder about Edgar Martínez's and Kevin Seitzer's stewardship of the offense, for now let's grant that they can't simply make guys hit.

2. The bullpen has a 19.4 K%

If it feels like the bullpen has done more harm than good for the Mariners so far, it's not a mirage. Though relievers have only incurred two of the team's seven losses, FanGraphs has their collective win probability added under water at -0.76.

A big part of the problem: They're just not missing bats.

The 19.4 strikeout percentage Mariners relievers have so far ranks 22nd in MLB, and is down from 25.9 percent in 2024. No American League pen has suffered a bigger decline in its strikeout rate from last year. And it really has cost the team, as the pen's 46 hits allowed are the most in the AL.

Andrés Muñoz is doing fine, having fanned eight of the 20 batters he's faced. Yet he's on an island unto himself there, and nobody is more out to sea than Gregory Santos. He's faced 27 batters and struck out none of them, thus allowing for real concerns about the sustainability of his 1.59 ERA.

In other words, the Mariners badly need Matt Brash and Troy Taylor back in the bullpen.

3. Fill-in starters for George Kirby have a 22.09 ERA

The good news is that Kirby is progressing nicely in his recovery from shoulder inflammation. He likely won't be back in the rotation before April is over, but early May seems realistic.

Mariners fans have every right to feel antsy, however, as the 2023 All-Star's replacements haven't done much of a job of holding down the fort. In two starts, Emerson Hancock and Luis F. Castillo have combined to give up nine runs over 3.2 innings.

This is mostly on Hancock, who got only two outs while serving up six runs in his 2025 debut against the Detroit Tigers. He was promptly demoted, adding another sad chapter to what's been a disappointing career.

As for Castillo, he just plain labored against the Giants in his first MLB start on Friday. He gave up three runs in three innings, with constant traffic on the bases by way of six hits and two walks.

The Mariners lost both of these games, and a better starting performance would have made a difference in at least one of them. Whereas the game Hancock started ended up being a 7-0 shutout, the one started by Castillo was a 10-9 defeat in extra innings.

At this point, the only way for the Mariners to go is up. And if one is feeling optimistic that these problems will eventually be corrected, well, that is fair. The Mariners aren't going to hit .139 with runners in scoring position all year, and help is indeed on the way for the bullpen and the rotation.

Still, the damage that has already been done could hurt the Mariners in the end. After watching the team fall one game short of the playoffs in back-to-back seasons, fans know this feeling all too well.