3 bounce-back candidates Mariners can target in free agency at a favorable price

This year's free agent class is full of marquee names and elite stars seeking nine-figure paydays. With Juan Soto leading the pack and projected to receive a contract worth $500 million or more, it doesn't seem like the Seattle Mariners will be able to compete with the bigger spenders this winter.

However, that doesn't mean they can't still make meaningful progress. The beauty of roster construction in baseball is finding hidden value where others aren't looking.

After all, you don't necessarily have to have a gargantuan payroll to find success in the sport. So where can the Mariners look to strike a balance?

3 bounce-back candidates Mariners can target in free agency at a favorable price

1B Paul Goldschmidt

Despite having one of the most impressive careers among currently active players, Goldschmidt has had a sharp decline since winning his first MVP award in 2022. After six productive years in St. Louis, he wasn't even extended a qualifying offer and was sent into free agency. This move was perfectly reasonable as his 98 OPS+ and .716 OPS in 2024 marked the least productive offensive season of his 14-year career by far. Furthermore, he'll be almost 38 years old by the time the next Opening Day rolls around, another factor that makes him less alluring of a free agent target.

But a closer look at his numbers reveals some interesting details. First, despite his age, Goldschmidt still had some of the best quality of contact numbers in the league. His hard-hit rate of 49.6% was in the top percentile of qualified hitters while his average exit velocity of 91.2 mph and expected slugging percentage of .464 were both in the top quartile. Secondly, he made big adjustments throughout the season and went from a .664 OPS in in the first half to a .799 OPS in the second half. This improvement was driven by a better numbers against sinkers and breaking balls in particular.

He had some issues dealing with higher velocity last year and his performance against four-seam fastballs has declined since 2022, but he still managed to slug .479 against the pitch. Given his age and numbers, he'll likely get a two-year deal at most with an AAV around $10-15 million, a perfectly affordable rate for the Mariners who are still looking for someone to fill in at first base. He won't be the same player he was at the peak of his career, but he's still a solid hitter that's good for 20+ homers and 30+ doubles each season.

1B Josh Bell

At first glance, Bell's numbers are unimpressive, to say the least. His 97 OPS+ and poor defense were worth -0.6 rWAR in 2024 despite playing every day. Similar to Goldschmidt, much of this was skewed by a weak showing in the first portion of the season when he was still with the Marlins.

After being traded to the Diamondbacks at the deadline, Bell started putting up better numbers at the plate, jumping from a .699 OPS to a .796 OPS over 162 plate appearances in Arizona. He was especially effective against breaking balls, posting a 1.064 against them as a Diamondback.

Bell has struggled to find his footing in the major leagues since departing from the Nationals and has spent time with four other teams since. If the Mariners choose to pursue this option, this gives Seattle's front office leverage to negotiate a lower contract value as it doesn't seem like there's much demand for his services long-term. His profile doesn't jump off the page, especially for a first baseman, but that's exactly what makes him a hidden gem.

An .885 OPS in the second half of 2024 could indicate that he's coming out of the rain and returning to what made him a great slugger.

UT Kiké Hernández

Hernández might have the best story of the 2024 season that you haven't read about yet. After putting up a brutal .557 OPS over 213 plate appearances in the first half, things weren't looking all too great for the veteran infielder. After talking to fellow countryman Martín Maldonado about how many players on the White Sox had recently discovered they had eyesight issues, Hernández decided to get more thoroughly tested himself.

He found out that he had astigmatism, a condition that negatively affected his eyesight. After donning a pair of glasses to fix the problem, he went on to record a .790 OPS in August and an .821 OPS in September before capping it off with an .808 postseason OPS on the way to a World Series victory with the Dodgers.

He'll likely get a shorter-term deal at 33 years old but it would be surprising for him to eclipse $15 million AAV. With his eyesight bringing him back to full strength and his positional flexibility, he could plug any one of the many gaps in the Mariners roster. With Jorge Polanco officially a free agent, he could be on the running shortlist of potential second base candidates. If not, he played six different positions last year, so the M's slot can him wherever he needs to go.