2026 paths of Aaron Judge, Cal Raleigh only make 2025 AL MVP decision look worse

As much as we don't agree with the recent notion the Mariners' window to contend might be closing, we still appreciate why it would even be a debate. Just the thought that getting to within eight outs last season of that first World Series berth might have been the missed opportunity, is enough to scare the average M's fan. And on an individual basis, we feel even more strongly that the same applies to Cal Raleigh falling short of being named 2025 AL MVP.

The 2025 race for the prestigious award was an all-timer, but ultimately the outcome was somewhat predictable. Yes, Raleigh did manage to get 13 of the 30 first-place votes, but it was still deflating as he lost out to Aaron Judge. For us, the result brought a focus to the question of what being an MVP actually means?

We don't dispute Judge is an all-time great hitter, or that his productivity was MVP-esque. However, was he really more valuable than Raleigh, whose exploits saw him achieve things never done before in Major League history by a catcher, highlighted by becoming just the seventh player ever to reach the 60-home run plateau? And there were plenty of people who agreed with our sentiment that he should have been AL MVP last season, including Foolish Baseball.

The 2026 season for the Mariners and Yankees provides extra evidence as to who is more valuable

Look, we get it that there's a lot of subjectivity which goes into determining what makes someone an MVP. Irrespective, we'd still like to present this season as (further) evidence to help show the voters made a mistake in awarding Judge the 2025 AL MVP award over Raleigh. Both have endured frustrating 2026 campaigns, but you only have to look at how the Yankees and Mariners have done, to highlight who is more valuable to their team.

With one game left to play on Sunday, the Yankees are 93-68 with a chance to equal their regular season win total of last season. And yet they've achieved this with Judge being limited to 66 games due to a right rib stress fracture and more recently a right calf strain. It's also interesting that even when he has played, he's on a pace for his least productive season since his rookie year of 2016. (Albeit the majority of people in Seattle would happily take his .871 OPS and 140 OPS+!)

The Mariners on the other hand, have dropped from 90-72 last season to 74-86 with two games to play. Raleigh has similarly had injury issues like Judge, with a right oblique strain which severely compromised his first half of the 2026 campaign (and not helped by him attempting to play through it). However, he has still been able to play 124 games overall and the reality is that it's just been a brutal year for him.

We acknowledge this season has been a team-wide disappointment and disaster of epic proportions, with the likes of Julio Rodríguez, Josh Naylor and Andrés Muñoz similarly falling off the cliff ledge. The rotation took a collective step (or two) backwards, while the bullpen just didn't have enough quality depth. However, it really does seem as if Raleigh is the story of this Mariners season, because as he goes, so does the team.

Raleigh is the heartbeat of the Mariners and they can't compete if he's not at full capacity

In this respect, Raleigh's struggles in 2026 make you realize how screwed the Mariners could have been without him last season. For example, consider that they were 38-11 in games when he homered, but only 52-61 when he didn't. For all the talk about Rodríguez as a five-tool superstar talent and Naylor being the galvanzing force when he arrived last July, the reality is that Raleigh is the clubhouse leader and heartbeat of the roster.

Just think about how much the 2025 version of Raleigh could have made all the difference to the way things played out this season. More specifically, if you applied his 9.1 fWAR last year rather than the 1.9 fWAR he's accrued in 2026. The additional seven wins would have put the Mariners at 81-79 and two games ahead at the top of the AL West with two to play.

Now yes, if you apply the same logic to Judge, the 2025 version of him would have meant an additional eight wins for the Yankees and homefield advantage in the AL this season. However, the fact remains the Bronx Bombers are still going to the playoffs as the top wild card seed. Meanwhile, the Mariners are going to be at home watching it all play out. (Assuming they can bring themselves to turn on their televisions.)

Ultimately, we were frustrated at the time that Raleigh lost out to Judge for the 2025 AL MVP award, but tried to be fair and objective. Now though, how the Mariners and Yankees have performed this season while the duo have dealt with various obstacles, has only brought back and indeed enhanced our frustration. Forget being fair and reasonable, Raleigh was robbed and the voters should hang their heads in shame.

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