Mariners: Top 5 Players likely to be traded this offseason

Mariners Trade Candidate #1: Jake Fraley

Jake Fraley started the year as a walking machine, with eight walks and one HBP through 19 PA. He would hurt his hammy, but pick up where he left off over the next 35 games. During that stretch, Fraley would hit .250/.392/.462, posting the second-highest walk rate in all of baseball.

He would go on the IL, and wasn’t the same when he came back. He was still walking a fair amount, but with a slash line of .180/.278/.290 over 38 games, it left a lot to be desired. His above-average defense (according to baseball reference) alongside the walks was what was able to keep him in the lineup.

2022 will be his age-27 season, and the Mariners (and us fans) need to ask themselves… which Jake Fraley are we going to see? Is it going to be the guy with a tremendous eye, a pretty good bat, and someone who provides a good mix of power and speed? Fraley had seven homers and six steals during that first 35 game stretch. Extrapolating it out over a full season is a bit of a stretch, but you can easily see Fraley hitting .245/.365/.425 with 20 homers and 20 steals.

I like Fraley a lot. He’s fun to watch and single-handedly saved a Mariners game earlier this season in Detroit.

His value is good right now. It definitely could get better. A lot of teams out there would love a guy in their late 20’s, with a sky-high walk rate, power/speed, and a decent average. If the right deal comes Dipoto’s way, I could definitely see him making a move to breaking apart the upcoming outfield logjam by trading Jake Fraley.

Mariners Trade Candidate #2: Shed Long

I know plenty of Mariners fans who have had high hopes for Shed Long. Shoot, they still do. He fits right in with the Mariners, and even stands out (in a good way) with his glasses in the field.

Unfortunately for Long, he has been plagued by injuries and struggled for a long time to recoup from his odd leg injury, dealing with issues with his shin, an infection, and lingering soreness.

Playing him out in Left Field didn’t make things better, as it comes from a need to have someone out there as compared to Long actually fitting out there. It would be nice to see him get a real shot at second base. With the Mariners seriously opening their window to compete and contend, those options for plugging in relative unknowns (or unprovens) are all but closed.

Second base isn’t the deepest position in baseball, as even the Mariners have proved before grabbing Abraham Toro at the deadline and inserting him there. Long is only going to be 26 this upcoming season, and there are plenty of rebuilding teams out there, and teams with question marks at second base. I fully expect Dipoto to check in with them to see if he can make some sort of upgrade to the team in exchange for Long.

Mariners Trade Candidate #3: Justus Sheffield

This is a tough one. Justus Sheffield’s value is definitely lower than anyone involved wants it to be. Shoot, even Sheffield knows he could be producing higher. The guy was a top prospect at one point and was supposed to be a team’s ace at some point in his career.

He definitely has the stuff, and that’s why I think he still has a decent value. In 2020, he threw 55.1 innings, notching a 3.58 ERA with a 3.17 FIP. That’s a lot of talent, albeit in a relatively small sample size.

In 2021, he was plagued by some control issues (4.8 BB/9) and the long ball (1.6 HR/0), which led to a rough ERA, but a better FIP than expected at 5.66. So which Sheffield is the real one?

If he gets back to 2020, that’s a great addition to any squad, even ones who want to make a deep playoff run. However, the pitcher from 2021 is arguably un-rosterable. You see it a lot across baseball, where a player’s value sits somewhere in the middle, and a team will trade them to get something of value back in case that floor is the end answer.

He’s a lefty, which helps, and is still young. I think if Dipoto would be able to find a team that is a few years away with an up-and-coming second baseman or third baseman, he could package Sheffield with a prospect in order to pry them away.

Mariners Trade Candidate #4: Drew Steckenrider

Back in Spring Training, there was a debate about who was going to make the final spots on the roster. Will Vest (remember that guy?) was going to have a spot due to his Rule 5 selection, cutting down the possibilities for others to make the team. Drew Steckenrider was one of the contenders but was coming off a short and bad 2019, and no 2020.

He had been great in 2018, and incredible during his rookie season in 2017. So, the Mariners brought him in. They gained control over his arb years, having the option to keep him through 2023 before he would become a UFA for 2024.

In a surprising move to many, Steckenrider made that final roster spot, and oh boy was it the correct decision by Seattle. He turned in the best season of his young career. The strikeout numbers were down (7.7 K/9), but a minuscule WHIP of 1.02 looks really nice next to an ERA of 2.00. He managed that through 62 appearances and 67.2 innings, becoming one of the go-to arms in the Mariners bullpen this season.

What that also means, is that Steckenrider is now a high-profile bullpen arm with a couple of years of arbitration control left. The Mariners are loaded in the bullpen and will need to make room for some left-handed relievers at some point. The team is very RH heavy, and moving Steckenrider could be a way to solve a need elsewhere and open up a spot for an LH reliever.

*Cough* James Paxton at the break *Cough*

Mariners Trade Candidate #5: Dylan Moore

I want Dylan Moore to succeed so badly. I really do. He has so much potential, but things just don’t seem to work out for him. Go back to last year’s shortened season, and you can see what I’m talking about.

137 AB, 8 HR, 12 SB, .255/.358/.496, 0.4 dWAR. The dude can mash and run. He even showed that he could hit.

Unfortunately, it might’ve been a mirage. This year, in 332 AB, he hit just .181/.276/.334. He still managed to hit 12 HR and swipe 21 bags (which, was good for 13th in all of baseball), but the average is hard to swallow.

If, and it’s a big ask, if Moore could hit in the 230s, he could likely put up somewhere around 25-30 HR and 35-40 SB. There is no reason to think he couldn’t do that, given the full-time job in Left Field and earning somewhere in the neighborhood of 500 AB. Shoot, the guy hits homers on 20% of his hits.

He also just turned 29, and is a bit of a late arrival to the game. Sure, there is a chance he could turn it around and have a solid 5-7 year stretch before retiring. It worries me though that he might have too much trouble making enough consistent contact to be effective. When he’s on, it’s amazing.

As a .181 hitter, it just doesn’t happen enough. There are too many guys coming up through the system for a near 30-year-old to be in the mix, so I could see Dipoto moving on from him.

Mariners Bonus Trade Candidate: Chris Flexen

There is a bit of Bill Belichick to Jerry Dipoto, I think. The fact that he doesn’t mind getting rid of guys when they are doing great, knowing that they could be at their peak.

It’s my worry with Flexen. He could 100% be a different player after coming back from Korea and pitching this year with the Mariners. He eats innings fairly well,  and the 3.61 ERA and 3.89 FIP could be inflated from a couple of awful starts this season. Strikeouts are a rarity though, and he had one of the lowest rates for any qualified starter in baseball.

The other crazy thing about Flexen is that he is under team control through 2026. That’s a lot of control on a guy who could possibly be entering his prime and would hold incredible value throughout that time. He’s going to be 33 when he is eligible to sign, so you get the entirety of his prime.

Which is why I could see Dipoto trading him. It’s fun watching Flexen, as he is so different than many frontline guys these days. When you look at K/9, you expect to see double digits, not something that starts with a 6. There are a lot of fans out there, and potentially rightfully so, that think we have a boatload of current pitchers and prospects that could be better than Flexen. Is that thought process wrong? No. Is it dangerous? Probably.

With Marco, Gilbert, Brash, Hancock, Kirby, whichever other prospects you want to name, and potentially a big FA signing, there are still a lot of options. I didn’t even mention Kikuchi, who is going to likely be around still with a $13 million player option.

If Dipoto is able to move Flexen and potentially another piece for a solid second baseman, would you actually be upset? Tommy Edman, Whit Merrifield, or Brandon Lowe (probably not him). Or maybe a new player to man the hot corner, it would probably be a smart play.

It’s why Flexen makes the list, finishing it out as the Wild Card for a potential trade piece this year for the Seattle Mariners. I don’t necessarily think he is going to be traded, but very few things would surprise me as a trade alert with this team.

Trades are going to happen this offseason. Not all of them (well, I wouldn’t put anything past Jerry), but there is going to be something that catches us off-guard. The Mariners are definitely going to be fun to watch throughout the winter, and these guys are likely to be high on the list of M’s to be traded.