Three Seattle Mariners Trades for Zach Davies

Arguably the best part about the MLB trade deadline is speculating what players could move and what players actually will move. There are likely 15 teams currently in the market for starting pitching, among them our beloved Seattle Mariners (55-46, 1.0G behind Oakland). It’s easy to list off the household names that could be on the move before July 30th (Scherzer, Berrios, Gibson, Means, Marquez, etc.), but a lesser-known name that is potentially a perfect fit for the Mariners is Zach Davies of the Chicago Cubs.

Davies (4.30 ERA, 94 ERA+, 1.0 WAR) is a 28-year-old born currently in his 7th year as a major league pitcher. His 2021 ERA is misleading – his April ERA was 9.47, which means he’s settled into the season after a few rough outings. Since May 1, he’s posted the following monthly ERA values: 1.72 (May), 3.82 (June), and 4.30 (July).

It is worth noting the downside: he is tied for the most walks surrendered in the majors (54 BB’s). Even given his high walk rate, he’s consistently a top-3 starting pitcher in terms of games started – this type of consistency and health has been a huge issue for the Mariners rotation and is something we’re dying to have on our pitching staff.

Considering his ERA+, he’d fit in nicely as a number 4 pitcher and wouldn’t disrupt the three-headed monster we currently deploy at the top of our rotation. Making trades can be a tricky thing, and clubhouse cohesion is incredibly important to maintain – a single trade can derail a clubhouse’s mojo.

An important detail in the Zach Davies trade frenzy was announced a few days ago via John Heyman:

While it’s unsurprising that Davies has attracted interest from other organizations, it does highlight the need so many contenders have for starting pitching. It’s safe to assume that, given where the Cubs stand with their roster, they’ll likely look to acquire youth in any trade they make for Davies to retool an organization only a few years removed from a World Series title.

With Baez and Bryant potentially on the move, Kyle Hendricks on the last year of his deal, and Joc Pederson already in Atlanta (for now), it’s safe to say the Cubs need young talent and they need it fast. Here are some potential trade offers the Mariners could make.

Mariners First Trade Offer to Cubs for Zach Davies

The first trade the Mariners could propose to the Cubs: Zach Davies for Luis Torrens ($3.7M MTV). Torrens currently flexes between catcher and first base, but it’s likely the Cubs would be interested in playing him at 1B in the event Rizzo gets dealt. Torrens currently has a slash line of .223/.291/.462 and has an OPS+ of 110. This slash line is a noticeable decline from Rizzo’s (.248/.346/.441, 115 OPS+), but does fall in line with the rest of the Cubs’ infield.

In fact, Torrens would offer the second-highest OPS+ in the Cubs infield, behind only Contreras (115). On paper, this is an overpay by the Mariners for a number 4 who leads the league in walks – the Mariners would need the Cubs to handle the financial commitments made to Davies through the end of 2021.

It’s a perfect example of how convoluted the starting pitching market is right now, and how competition only drives up asking prices. This really boils down to whether the Mariners can make a lesser trade stick, or if they can find an arm from another team. If they’re desperate, they might push this through.

Mariners Second Trade Offer to Cubs for Zach Davies

A second trade that could be proposed: Zach Davies for Jake Bauers ($0.6M MTV) and Matt Brash (Arkansas Travelers SP, 2.58 ERA, $0.5M MTV). The Cubs could view adding a versatile outfielder like Bauers as a move to attempt to fill Pederson’s shoes, and it probably helps that he could step in at first base if the Cubs go all-in as sellers (Rizzo’s 9yr/$75M contract expires at the end of the 2021 season).

Since getting traded to the Mariners, Jake Bauers has posted a slash line of .240/.282/.288 and an OPS+ of 64. This OPS+ is almost identical to that of Ian Happ (67), and only slightly worse than Jason Heyward (71). Matt Brash was promoted to Arkansas 10 days ago and has posted a 2.70 ERA in his two starts at Double-A. He’s a promising young arm that the Cubs would view as ready for the majors as early as next summer.

This is a slight overpay by the Mariners, but given the breadth of their pitching prospect pool and the versatility of our current roster to fill the hole left by Bauers, it’s not hard to imagine that this deal goes through.