5 things we learned about the Mariners after the opening series

The Mariners are off to a good start in 2021 and are tied for second place in the AL West with the Angels. Seattle was able to win two out of three games against the Giants and it was an exciting series. So, let’s look into the five things I learned from the three games against the Giants.

Learning no. 1 – The Mariners 1-3 starting pitchers should be reliable

One of my biggest takeaways from the Opening Series was how good Yusei Kikuchi and Chris Flexen were. Yusei started game two for Seattle and threw six innings and allowed three runs. It’s not a Cy Young type of performance, but consistency has been a major issue for Kikuchi and he looked consistent in his first 2021 start. Additionally, Yusei Kikuchi’s spin rates were significantly higher than his 2020 averages and he struck out 10 batters on Friday.

Chris Flexen also had a nice start and got his first win as a Mariners pitcher. The 26-year-old threw five innings of scoreless baseball and struck out six batters. His four-seam fastball reached 94.8 mph, and his cutter touched 91.8 mph. Flexen’s cutter might have been the most impressive pitch last night for me. It was reminded me a little of Roy Halladay’s cutter.

Flexen’s spin rate on the curveball was also good. The highest rpm he hit was 2,786 rpm and he mostly was in the 2,600s rpm. For context, Trevor Bauer (a huge spin rate geek), his average rpm on his curveball last season was 2,936 rpm. Another example, Lance McCullers Jr.’s average rpm on his curveball was 2,787 rpm in 2020. Obviously, spin rate isn’t everything, but it is sometimes a good representation of pitch effectiveness.

And obviously, we can’t forget about Marco Gonzales. The Gonzaga product didn’t have the best start to 2021 but there is nothing to worry about. Based on the upward trend he is on, he is in store for another fantastic season and should be in the All-Star conversation. He got roughed up for five runs on Thursday but managed to keep the game close enough for a comeback victory in the late innings.

Although it’s a small sample size, having Gonzales, Kikuchi, and Flexen at the front end of the rotation could be a very underrated 1-3 this season. It isn’t a Clayton Kershaw, Trevor Bauer, and Walker Buehler 1-3, but the Mariners could be competing with some of the top teams if we see more of what Kikuchi and Flexen did this week.

Keep in mind, the Mariners still have James Paxton, Justus Sheffield, and Justin Dunn coming up next week which is VERY exciting.

Mariners learning no. 3 – the fight for left-field is getting even more competitive

Kyle Lewis‘ injury is sad news for the Mariners, but it has allowed Jake Fraley and Taylor Trammell to see additional time on the field and they have made the most of it. Taylor Trammell was my lead candidate to start in left field, but Jake Fraley isn’t going down without a fight. On yesterday’s broadcast, Jerry Dipoto told Dave Sims and Mike Blowers that Kyle Lewis is about a week away, so the two will get a little more extended time in the outfield but one of them will be benched or sent down once Lewis is back.

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Taylor Trammell just got his first MLB hit yesterday and has walked a few times but that is about it for his offensive production. The 23-year-old prospect has a .012 xBA, .244 wOBA, and has struck out too often.

Jake Fraley on the other hand has a .355 xBA, .550 wOBA, and a whopping 44.4% walk percentage. He has just been an on-base machine during the Opening Series and is showing patience, despite striking out a bunch in Spring Training.

Both have reliable gloves in the outfield so it really comes down to which outfielder will produce more offensively to play in the outfield once Kyle Lewis returns. The battle is getting intense and it will be interesting to see who comes out on top. Another thing to remember, Jarred Kelenic will be up in the big leagues before we know it.

Mariners learning no. 4 – Mitch Haniger is looking like his old self

It’s only been three games, but Mitch Haniger’s numbers are looking like his 2018 All-Star numbers. So far this is what he’s done:

• 10% barrel%
• .271 xBA
• .518 xSLG
• .392 wOBA
• .329 xwOBA
• 153 OPS+

In 2018, Haniger had a breakout season. He made his first All-Star team and finished 11th in MVP voting. Here’s what he posted that year:

• 10.3% barrel%
• .276 xBA
• .495 xSLG
• .367 wOBA
• .369 xwOBA
• 139 OPS+

The 30-year-old outfielder has also hit one home run and one double to start the season. Like I said, it’s a small sample size but it is a good sign that it doesn’t seem like he’s missed a beat at all, despite not playing for so long.

If the Mariners can get the 2018 Mitch Haniger, it will be huge for the team. The career .268 hitter has some young talent competing for playing time so he needs to be at his best.

Mitch has also made a couple of nice plays already and we fans are excited to have him back.

Mariners learning no. 5 – Ty France’s Spring Training was no fluke

The 26-year-old infielder was one of the best hitters during Mariners Spring Training and he’s proving that it wasn’t just a fluke. In three games, France is barreling 16.7% of balls and has hit the sweet spot 50% of the time. He’s also posted these stats:

• .279 xBA
• .432 xSLG
• .489 wOBA
• .399 xwOBA

France’s exit velocity currently ranks in the bottom 22nd percentile of the MLB, but he’s never been a guy who hits the ball consistently hard. Last season, he hit balls 85.7 mph on average (bottom 8% of league), but he still posted a .285 xBA and a .362 wOBA. He’s one of those rare cases that defy the trend of harder hit balls = more hits and runs.

Although his overall exit velocity isn’t very high, France crushed his first home run of the regular season yesterday. The former Padre hit the ball 111.1 mph and the ball traveled 403 feet.

France led the team in home runs during the Cactus League with five, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he leads the team during the regular season. France is one of my candidates to be an All-Star this year and he’s on track.