Fangraphs gives the Mariners an insanely low chance to make the playoffs

Fangraphs has released their postseason projections for 2021 and the Mariners have one of the lowest projected odds of making the postseason among all 30 teams. On this graphic tweeted out by the MLB, the Mariners have the 6th lowest odds of making the postseason at 1.7%.

However, Fangraphs must have updated their projections after the signing of James Paxton because they now give the Mariners a 2.1% chance of making the postseason. They also now give the Rangers a 1.8% chance of playing in October, a whole percentage point higher than in the graphic tweeted out by the MLB.

Going with the updated 2.1% chance, Seattle currently has the 8th worst odds of making the playoffs, tied with the Diamondbacks, and ahead of the Tigers, Rangers, Marlins, Pirates, Rockies, and Orioles.

While I do think that the playoff odds are quite low, I would have thought with the AL West being more open than it has been in years that the Mariners would come in somewhere around 5-10%, which would still not be much of an upgrade over 2.1%.

Fangraphs was also not very kind to the Mariners earlier this offseason when they released their 2021 ZiPS projections, which had almost every player on the team having a down year compared to 2020.

There are some projections other than the Mariners that fans will definitely be mad about

The projections definitely have more teams mad about their chances of making the playoffs than the Mariners, as some teams have made their way to the comments section of the tweet to let out their frustration.

Fangraphs says the defending AL Champion Tampa Bay Rays have just an 18.6% chance of making the playoffs, and gives the 2019 World Series Champion Washington Nationals a 24.6% chance of making the playoffs.

They also gave the Miami Marlins a 0.7% chance of making the playoffs which were the lowest odds for a team who played in the postseason in 2020. On the opposite side, the highest odds given to a team who didn’t make the playoffs last year were the Boston Red Sox who are practically a coin flip according to Fangraphs at 47%.