Seattle Mariners Farm System a Recipe for Success: A Historical Analysis

The Seattle Mariners have one of the best farm systems in the MLB. Can past farm system strength predict future Major League success?

Baseball is so different than other professional leagues. There are thousands of minor leaguers spread out across multiple levels. Many of which will never even sniff the pros. For the Seattle Mariners, they finally have one of the top farm systems in the game.

It’s been quite a long time since the Mariners have been in this situation. In 2002, they had the second-best farm system in all of baseball. Nearly 20 years later, they are in about the same situation, with a top farm system for the first time since.

How important is a farm system? Is there an actual correlation between success in building your team and success at the major league level?

That’s the question that has been on my mind lately. The Mariners are in the best position as a franchise that they have been in, for quite some time. Not a lot of salary on the team, plenty of youth, youth that has gained experience, and a nice starting pitcher who is coming into his own since joining Seattle, Marco Gonzalez.

Will the fact that the Mariners have a great looking farm system lead to results? Is there any type of pattern from the last ten years that would show we could be on the verge of not just watching meaningful September baseball, but baseball in October… that involves the Seattle Mariners?

In the end, what we are here to do is simple. Taking a look at the top three farm systems from each season over the last decade, and seeing what level of success they were able to achieve. Let’s start back in 2011, and see how they did. I took them from either Baseball America, Bleacher Report, or Baseball Prospectus, depending on which one I could find, and which wasn’t behind a paywall.

Oh, for fun, let’s put the Seattle Mariners in there also so we can see how bad we’ve been… I mean where they’ve ranked as well.

2011: 1 – Kansas City Royals, 2 – Toronto Blue Jays, 3 – Atlanta Braves, 18 – Seattle Mariners

The Kansas City Royals start off the argument of whether having a top farm system translates to success. The Royals had the strongest farm system in 2011, followed by the Blue Jays and Braves.  It’s always nice when the first team in your argument is one that saw resounding success within just a couple of years.

After a few middling years with a 71-91 and 72-90 record, things would take a nice turn in 2013 for Kansas City. They wouldn’t make the playoffs but would have their first winning season since 2003. All their top talent was coming up and starting to make an impact, and it would show in 2014 and 2015.

Salvador Perez, Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Alex Gordon, and a stellar bullpen led by Greg Holland, Wade Davis, and Kelvin Herrera would get them to game seven of the World Series. They would lose in 2014 but come through in 2015 with their first World Series Ring since 1985. This is 100% success and return on building a strong farm system.

Then we have the Toronto Blue Jays. They wouldn’t find as much success as the Royals but would make the ALCS back-to-back years in 2015 and 2016, led by Josh Donaldson. He didn’t come up in their system, but they used the strength of the minor league depth to trade for Donaldson… so close enough. The only reason they didn’t make it any further in the playoffs was that they lost to the Royals in 2015.

We then come to the Atlanta Braves who have been good, year in and year out it seems since the early 90’s. They would find the playoffs right away, before losing in the infamous infield fly wild card game in 2012. They would lose early again in 2013 in the division series, but had 94 and 96 wins, respectively.

Then we have the Mariners who finished 67-95 in 2011 with the 18th ranked farm system. The Seattle Mariners would finally have a winning season in 2014 (three years later), but it was not enough to make the playoffs.

2012: 1 – Texas Rangers, 2 – Kansas City Royals, 3 – San Diego Padres, 6 – Seattle Mariners

What’s odd about the Texas Rangers being in this position (top-ranked farm system)  is that they were in the midst of a great run already. They were coming off back-to-back World Series losses, which would be considered a success by most teams in baseball.

The new crop was coming up, and consisted of Elvis Andrus, Jurickson Profar, Mike Olt, and Leonys Martin, amongst others. They would make the playoffs again after their third straight 90+ win season, but this time lose in the division series. They would win 90+ again in 2013, but actually miss the playoffs.

2014 was the Rangers’ lone down year, but they would rebound in 2015. They would see trips to the division series in 2015 and 2016, losing each time.

We already covered the Royals, just check back to the last slide if you need a reminder. They had the second-ranked minor league system in 2012, after being the first-ranked system in 2011.

Then we have the San Diego Padres who, unfortunately, just couldn’t get it together with their prospects. Along with a front office that couldn’t figure out if they wanted to go for it or rebuild, things seemed to change year-by-year in San Diego. Rymer Liriano never did anything, Max Fried, Casey Kelly, and Austin Hedges all either stunk or left, and Jedd Gyorko didn’t amount to anything more than a solid rotation player with a few bright spots.

So, you could argue the Padres were doing everything they were supposed to do but the prospects did not pan out, except for Max Fried who pitched for the Braves this past season postseason.

Then we have the Seattle Mariners who had the sixth-ranked farm system in 2012. It was promising to see the team rise up the ranks, but as we know, many of the prospects that were drafted in 2009 and 2010 did not pan out. Notable names include Dustin Ackley, Nick Franklin, and Danny Hultzen.

2013: 1 – Boston Red Sox, 2 – Houston Astros, 3 – San Diego Padres, 6 – Seattle Mariners

Both The Boston Red Sox and the Houston Astros are two of the shining examples of how to bang on a trash can… Oh, wait. Wrong list.

Regardless of how much cheating you think they each did, both teams were loading up with young talent, watching it either come to fruition like Houston did, or mixing that talent with traded players like the Red Sox did with Chris Sale. Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, and Jackie Bradley all became a large part of the Sox, and it would end with them winning the Series both in 2013 and in 2018.

Then we have the Astros, who were playing the tank game, looking more like an NBA team. Arguably the baseball equivalent of the Philadelphia 76ers (Trust the Process).

They did insanely well with their top picks, taking George Springer in ’11, Carlos Correa in ’12, Alex Bregman in ’15, and Kyle Tucker in ’15 as well. After years of tanking, highlighted by three straight seasons of over 105 losses, they would start to compete in 2015, making the playoffs with an 86 win season. Then, in 2017, they would make it all the way there, *winning* the World Series. They would lose the ALCS the following year and lose the WS in seven next year.

The San Diego Padres were the third-ranked farm system but it is the same story for them, as I mentioned on the previous page. A collection of prospects that just did not turn into stars as expected.

For the Mariners, it was a similar story to the Padres. Seattle had a good farm system, or so we thought. Dustin Ackley showed promise in the minor leagues, but never amounted to anything. The Mariners were building a three-headed monster with Taijuan Walker, James Paxton, and Danny Hultzen but that did not go as planned. Jesus Montero was acquired the previous year for Michael Pineda which seemed good, but we now know it was not.

But I will point out, Kyle Seager was the lone bright spot out of all of this negativity who is the arguably best third baseman in Mariners history.

2014: 1 – Minnesota Twins, 2 – Boston Red Sox, 3 – Houston Astros, 17 – Seattle Mariners

More than any other non-Mariner prospect I have ever seen, I really wanted Byron Buxton to succeed. I’ve always found myself drawn, as a fan, to fast players. Seeing a guy wreak havoc on the basepaths, bothering pitchers, making the third baseman nervous about getting beat on a bunt, and catching what seemed to be uncatchable fly balls. Buxton had it all and more.

He looked to be one of the fastest guys to ever come into baseball, at least of those who could do more than just run. Buxton was supposed to have a decent bat, an insane glove and range, and a great arm too. Hit for average. A guy you could build around.

What’s the one common worry with speed guys though? Their hamstrings. That’s what has plagued Buxton and kept him from reaching his potential. He was supposed to be paired with one of the biggest bats in all of the minors, in Miguel Sano. He didn’t make it, but for a multitude of different reasons.

Some of their players would make it though. Sano contributed. Buxton shined occasionally. Trevor May was a great bullpen guy. Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco, and Jose Berrios all have had their moments too. It’s led to a continuation of one of the craziest streaks in all of sports… 17 straight postseason losses. Making it there is half the battle, so I guess it’s a mild success still.

Nothing has really changed for the Boston Red Sox or Houston Astros, their prospects just continued to show promise and ended up panning out. Mookie Betts became more of a stud, and the same goes for Carlos Correa and George Springer.

Meanwhile, the Mariners used their decent farm system and the newly signed Robinson Cano to actually have a winning record for the first time since ’09 but still missed the playoffs by just a game behind division foe Oakland. Seems like we are starting to see a trend of good farm systems making it to the playoffs. Will it continue?

2015: 1 – Chicago Cubs, 2 – Boston Red Sox, 3 – Minnesota Twins, 23 – Seattle Mariners

The Cubbies! So many years of pain, despair, and disappointment. Seeing division rivals have success, from the Cardinals to the Reds to the Pirates, even the Brewers had been to the World Series. It seemed like a new horizon was dawning though, large thanks in part to Theo Epstein, the young phenom who was also responsible for a lot of the success in Boston.

Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Starlin Castro, Addison Russell, Jorge Soler, and Kyle Schwarber. All young, all talented, and all making an impact nearly right away. Just take a look at their Baseball Reference page and you can see how young they were on offense. Back to the Future was just a bit off, and the Cubs would actually lose in the NLCS, being swept by the Mets.

2016 would be their year, as they would have one of the winningest years in team history, getting to 103 wins. It would also be the year we would see one of the greatest game sevens, not just in baseball, but any sport in history.

In Cleveland, amidst a delay, after blowing a three-run lead in the 8th, it seemed like the curse of the cubbies was going to continue. Instead, they would score two in the top of the 10th, and just barely hold on, winning the world series. The Cubs are one of the best examples of building a team from the bottom up much as the Royals did in 2011 with the top-ranked farm system.

We already touched on the Sox and the Twins, nothing has changed there. The Mariners would be back under .500… surprise and the farm system dropped into the bottom third of the MLB. At the end of the season, Jerry Dipoto was hired as the new general manager so he will look to turn the ship in the right direction.

2016: 1 – Los Angeles Dodgers, 2 – Atlanta Braves, 3 – Colorado Rockies, 28 – Seattle Mariners

We have a new entrant on the list, and this one shouldn’t surprise anybody. The Dodgers have been one of the best teams in baseball, and a big part of this has been their incredible farm system. You might think the Dodgers’ success comes only from the “big market” team that they are, but people forget they did a great job building a foundation of young talent also.

The bright spots or at least the ones that have accomplished a good amount in the pros were Cody Bellinger, Walker Buehler, and Gavin Lux. Then we have Alex Verdugo, who was a big part of getting the Dodgers one of the best players on their current team, Mookie Betts.

All four of those players played an integral part in their recent run to prominence. Gavin Lux is only 22, but still saw playing time this season. Cody Bellinger seemed to hit a home run whenever they needed one. Walker Buehler became, arguably, their best starting pitcher. Mookie… well, he is likely the second-best outfielder that plays as a Los Angeles outfielder… and the second-best outfielder in baseball. It happens when Trout is across town.

It wasn’t just 2020 though. The Dodgers were in danger of becoming the baseball version of the ’90s Bills.

2016 – Lost the NLCS

2017 – Lost the World Series

2018 – Lost the World Series

2019 – Lost the NLDS

It was an awful run, and Clayton Kershaw was starting to look like Charles Barkley. Due to the strength of their farm system though, the Dodgers were able to come through in the end.

The Atlanta Braves enter the top three again and look how they did this past postseason.

The Rockies though, are another new entry on the list. Unfortunately, they haven’t seen the success one would hope for, due in large part to the failure of said prospects… at least so far. Brendan Rodgers, Jeff Hoffman, Riley Pint, Raimel Tapia, German Marquez, and Ryan McMahon.

If you’re happy with any of them, then we have a different definition of a top prospect succeeding. They did make it to the playoffs, but that was based more on the old guard, at least prospect wise.

The Mariners had the 28th ranked system which is another step-down in Jerry Dipoto’s first year as general manager. He came into a very complicated situation so we will not see an immediate impact on the Mariners’ farm system.

Keep in mind, Jerry Dipoto drafted 2020 AL ROY Kyle Lewis this year.

2017: 1 – Atlanta Braves, 2 – New York Yankees, 3 – Milwaukee Brewers, 26 – Seattle Mariners

We all know the Braves are loaded. We’ve seen their success in recent years, making the division series in 2018 and 2019, and blowing a 3-1 lead to the eventual World Series Champion in 2020. They had Ronald Acuna Jr. becoming a top talent in its farm system.

Then somehow, the Yankees! The Yankees were arguably in the best position of any team in baseball. A top farm system, and a big-league club that was already loaded. Gleyber Torres headlined the list and has been quite the career already, nearly winning the Rookie of the year, and even receiving some MVP votes his second year.

They traded Justus Sheffield to get James Paxton, and Miguel Andujar has been great as well. All of this had led to them making the playoffs each of the last four years, losing in the ALDS twice and the ALCS twice. It would be a success to many, but unlikely to be one for the Bronx fans.

The Brewers entered the chat by having the third-ranked minor league system in 2017. Recently, the Brewers have had some of their top prospects show up, and play quite well. Brandon Woodruff has been great, and Keston Hiura has been one of the better young hitters in baseball. It’s been enough though, as they have made the playoffs each of the last three years especially after bringing in Christian Yelich.

Again, the Mariners are in the bottom part of the rankings. Oof. But Jerry Dipoto starts to hit on some draft picks, which seems outlandish if you are a Seattle Mariners fan. Kyle Lewis will become the heart of the farm system after being drafted the previous year, and the Mariners picked Gold Glover Evan White in 2017.

2018: 1 – Atlanta Braves, 2 – Chicago White Sox, 3 – New York Yankees, 30 – Seattle Mariners

Let’s take a bit of a dive into the number two team on this list, since we have already recently looked into the success of both the Atlanta Braves and the New York Yankees.

The Chicago White Sox were a bad team for quite some time. Thanks to some smart trades, like the ones including both Chris Sale and Adam Eaton, they were able to load up on talent and set themselves up for a nice run in the years to come. The White Sox received Michael Kopech, Yoan Moncada, and two other prospects in exchange for Chris Sales.

Anyway, The White Sox were loaded, and a good amount of the top talent had really shown their abilities, playing well once they’ve gotten to the majors. Luis Robert, Michael Kopech, and Eloy Jimenez. Years of frustration for White Sox fans are finally turning around.

Having just one winning season since 2011, they managed not just that in the odd 2020 season, but actually made it to the playoffs. Whether you want to call the 2020 Wild Card round real playoffs or not, they still made it. With the recent trade of Dane Dunning for Lance Lynn, they seem poised to make a run at the playoffs once again in 2021.

Does this type of trade package sound familiar to Mariners fans. Robinson Cano? Turns out he was good for something after all. Right before the year ended, Jerry Dipoto went to work and stayed true to his full rebuild mentality. It might have been one of the biggest moves the Seattle Mariners have ever made, and it was shocking at the time.

The New York Mets received Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz for a handful of prospects. This would begin the shift towards a better farm system in Seattle. Oh, and guess who the Mariners selected in the 2018 Draft? Logan Gilbert.

2019: 1 – San Diego Padres, 2 – Tampa Bay Rays, 3 – Atlanta Braves, 18 – Seattle Mariners

2020: 1 – Tampa Bay Rays, 2 – San Diego Padres, 3 – Los Angeles Dodgers, 4 – Seattle Mariners

The Padres have some of the most interesting young talents in baseball, and it was headlined by Fernando Tatis Jr. Or would’ve been if he hadn’t graduated from prospect status. Even without him, they were still number one. MacKenzie Gore, Taylor Trammell, Luis Patino, and CJ Abrams can do that for your franchise.

They seem to be on the right path and have a nice mix of farm talent with major league talent, leading to them having another low year in 2019, but bringing it together in 2020, finishing with one of the best short-season records at 37-23, and making the NLDS before losing. It was their first playoff appearance since 2006 though, showing the path they are on is a good one.

Then we have Tampa Bay. They are incredibly loaded and are led by the top prospect in all of baseball in Wander Franco. Not only is he the top prospect in baseball, but he is thought to be one of the best prospects in the last decade, if not longer. And we saw how great their rebuild worked this past season.

The Dodgers are back on the list, at least in the 2020 edition. Loaded with mid/high talent, if just a couple of them hit, they are going to continue to succeed, especially with a constant backing that will leave them as one of the highest payrolls in baseball.

Hey, look at that. In 2020, the Mariners were pushing for a spot. Funny that at the same time, fans around the team were starting to get a bit excited. This is a result of the big trade Jerry Dipoto made at the end of 2018, and the draft picks that Dipoto has made.

It can be hard to tell if these team’s prospects are going to lead to success, but all of the teams, other than the Mariners, are currently having success.